India-US trade deal: Exports could push New Delhi’s trade surplus with Washington to more than $90 billion, says SBI report – The Times of India

India’s trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion annually, according to a new report from SBI. This growth was driven by rising exports and greater import potential. Indian exporters could increase exports of their top 15 products to the US by $97 billion annually, with total exports potentially exceeding $100 billion annually after recent tariff cuts.“India’s trade surplus with the US could thus exceed $90 billion annually. According to our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters could increase their exports of the top 15 products to the US by about $97 billion in a year,” the report said, as quoted by ANI. The falling tariffs provide new opportunities for Indian exporters to capture a larger share of the US market.The trade surplus is already showing strong signs of growth. It reached $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 (April-December). The additional boost to exports could help push the surplus above $90 billion annually, boosting India’s GDP by 1.1 percent.Currently, the US accounts for about 20 percent of India’s exports but only 7 percent of its imports. In the import of services, the American share is only 15 percent. This gap suggests that India remains an untapped market for American goods and services.On the import side, India has pledged to buy $500 billion worth of American goods over the next five years. The US could potentially export more than $50 billion worth of goods to India annually, not including services. Import values ​​could rise by $55 billion if India agrees to reduce or eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial and agricultural goods.Some American products are already strongly represented in Indian imports, with shares between 20 and 40 percent. For example, the US supplies 90 percent of India’s almond imports. In these areas alone, the tariff cuts could help India save $100 to $150 million in foreign exchange. Total foreign exchange savings from reduced or zero import duties could amount to $3 billion, with the potential for even more through import substitution.