India leads silver imports by 2025, China in processing: why securing supply is as important as energy security – GTRI explains – The Times of India

According to a report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), silver imports are set to surge by 2025, highlighting its increasing strategic importance amid rising industrial demand, supply constraints and geopolitical tensions.India was the world’s largest importer of refined silver. It is estimated that silver worth $9.2 billion was imported last year, a 44 percent increase from the previous year, despite a sharp increase in prices. Silver prices in India have almost tripled in rupees over the past year, from around Rs 80,000-85,000 per kg in early 2025 to above Rs 2.43 lakh per kg in January 2026.The report stated that silver’s rally was driven not only by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical uncertainty, including recent developments in Venezuela, but also by a structural shift in global demand. More than half of global silver consumption is now industrial, with high demand for electronics, solar energy, electric vehicles, defense equipment and medical technologies. Solar energy alone accounts for about 15 percent of global silver demand.Global trade in refined silver has increased almost eightfold since 2000, reflecting the metal’s transformation from a traditionally precious commodity to a crucial industrial input. However, supply could not keep pace. Persistent annual supply shortages of 200 to 250 million ounces, combined with largely flat mine production, have tightened global markets.The report also noted China’s dominant role in silver processing. Although China is the world’s largest processor of silver ores and concentrates, India remains primarily a consumer, importing more than a fifth of the world’s refined silver trade by 2024. GTRI revealed that India imported about $6.4 billion worth of refined silver that year, while exporting less than $500 million worth of silver products, indicating high import dependence.Supply concerns have increased following China’s decision to introduce a permit-based export restriction on silver from January 1. The new system requires government approval for every export shipment, increasing uncertainty in global supply chains.GTRI argued that India should rethink its approach to silver and treat it as a strategic industrial and energy transition metal rather than merely a precious commodity. “India should recognize silver as a critical metal for industry and the energy transition, not just a precious commodity, and integrate it into its minerals and clean energy strategy,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.“This requires securing long-term supply through overseas mining partnerships and encouraging domestic refining and recycling capacity to reduce dependence on imported finished silver, and diversifying import sources beyond a few trading centres. In a fragmenting global order, securing silver is becoming as important as securing energy. India’s policy framework must reflect that shift,” he added.The GTRI report also flagged inconsistencies in global trade data. In 2024, reported global imports of silver ores and concentrates exceeded exports by approximately US$3.6 billion, indicating underreported or opaque trade flows mainly involving a small group of supplier countries.