IMD forecast for February: Higher temperature and less rainfall pose a risk to crops

The government has set a target of 119 million tonnes of wheat production in 2025-2026, which will be harvested from April | Photo credits: –

“The minimum temperature probability forecast indicates that minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal in February 2026 in most parts of the country, except some regions of southern peninsular India where normal minimum temperatures are expected. Above normal maximum temperatures are also likely in most parts of the country, except some isolated regions in central India and southern parts of peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely,” IMD Director General M Mohaptra said.

Briefing the media on the weather forecast, he also said that monthly rainfall in February for the entire country is likely to be below normal (<81 percent of LPA). However, some areas of northwest (parts of Rajasthan) and east-central India (especially Chhattisgarh) and extreme southern parts of Northeast India (Tripura) may experience normal to above-normal rainfall, he added.Further, Mohapatra also highlighted that rainfall in the northwestern region comprising Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi and Ladakh is likely to be below normal, which is less than 78 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA)."The ideal temperature for wheat harvest in February is 12 degrees Celsius at night and 25 degrees Celsius during the day. But even if the day temperature rises to 30 degrees Celsius and does not persist for a week, there is no threat to yield. There will be a risk only if both day and night temperatures are higher and persist for more than a week, and such a situation does not normally arise," said Gyanendra Singh, former director of the Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research. (IIWBR). “Let's wait and see,” he added.The government has set a target of 119 million tonnes of wheat production in 2025-26, which will be harvested from April. Total wheat area stood at a record high of 334.17 liters this year, compared to 328.04 liters in 2024-25, an increase of 2 percent. Production reached a record high of 117.54 million tonnes in 2024-2025.On the other hand, the IMD has warned that above-normal temperatures could accelerate crop growth and shorten the harvest duration of rabi crops, especially in northwestern and central India. “Crops like wheat and barley can experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaff-like grains, resulting in lower yield,” Mohapatra said.Furthermore, oilseeds and legumes such as mustard, gram (Chana), lentil (masur), and field pea may exhibit early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, smaller seed size and lower yield. Adding warmer conditions can also promote rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests.

Vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage and peas can be adversely affected during critical stages of their life cycle. Higher temperatures could cause bolting of onions and garlic, reduce the number of tubers in potatoes as flowers drop in tomatoes and deteriorate crops such as cabbage and cauliflower, reducing yields and market value, the report said.

Among other risks associated with above-normal temperatures in February, IMD said horticultural crops such as mango, citrus, banana and grapes may experience early flowering, uneven fruit set and increased fruit drop, as well as irregular flowering and poor fruit development in temperate fruit varieties such as apple, pear and peach.

Published on January 31, 2026