I can’t remember ever being so confident at the start of an away Ashes series | Mark Ramprakash

IIt’s the Ashes in Australia and that’s a series England have become accustomed to losing, so much so that even Jimmy Anderson, England’s greatest Test wicket-taker of all time, has the home side as favourites. But if Australia was ever there for the taking, it is now. Looking at how the two sides are developing before the opening match, I feel feisty about England’s chances: the team is strong, stable, and I think if Ben Stokes plays all five Tests they will win the Ashes and win them comfortably. I can’t remember ever being so confident before an away Ashes game.

That confidence is based on a strong group of Seamers and a top seven who have now played a lot of Test cricket and have a lot of runs under their belt. They will be looking at an opponent who will be without the injured Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood in Perth and will assess their chances of scoring points. Once you do that, you are in charge of the game.

Of course, England haven’t won often in Australia over the years, so the data says they’re up against that. But when you actually look at the two teams, at the mentality and confidence that England have, and at an opposition in transition, you see something different.

I can’t remember seeing an Australian side in such disarray: it looks like a 31-year-old debutant will open the batting alongside a 38-year-old who is in decline; Cummins’ absence means they will be without their hugely influential captain, an excellent bowler who can bat, a leader who sets the tone for the side; and now they have also lost Hazlewood, their Mr Consistent, who rarely leaks runs, who keeps them in control.

They hope they will both return for the second Test in Brisbane, but how much workload will they be able to handle? Will they be able to guarantee their ability to bowl 20 overs in the first innings, and then come back and do it again in the second? Their vulnerability increases the pressure on Mitchell Starc, who turns 36 in January and can no longer play all five matches – something he managed against India last year, but before that only once since 2015.

Australia has a number of important strengths. Nathan Lyon is one and while it is very rare for pitches in Australia to help him much, he is such a clear asset that they will do everything they can to get him into the game. England certainly don’t have a spinner who can hold a candle to him. But I expect the tourists to challenge him with real aggression, and they have the batters, the likes of Joe Root, Harry Brook and Zak Crawley, to win those battles. Against the kind of batting he’s likely to face, he’ll have to deploy some scouts to protect the boundaries, and that means cheap singles. England can force Australia to spread the field, and Lyon will not be able to dictate proceedings.

Then there is Steve Smith, who will captain Australia in the opening Test and is their only batsman of undoubted form and class. There is a lot on his shoulders and he will know he has to produce a lot. Eight years ago, when I was in the England team as batting coach, we just couldn’t get him out. He never gives away his wicket – and that is the big difference between him and some Bazball exponents.

The first Test is absolutely crucial and England have a chance to impose themselves on the weakened opposition. With their mentality it is a challenge they will enjoy. More than likely it will be a good delivery: England will enjoy hitting it and then their bowlers will get to work. Mark Wood has now been declared fit after a hamstring injury, but for me the first two guys on the team sheet are Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse, and if Wood and Jofra Archer can play three games each that would be a wonderful bonus.

But I’m a little concerned about England’s preparations. I toured Australia as a player in 1998-99 and as a coach in 2017-18, and in both matches we started with a number of four-day first-class matches. As the outcomes of those tours show, that is no guarantee of success, and these games have often failed to match the conditions or level of opposition that comes in the Tests. Yet players are becoming familiar with the Kookaburra ball, and with batting, bowling and fielding in the heat for extended periods.

These are first-class games, so a hitter knows he can’t just skim one for cover and get away with it – he has to sharpen his game. The kind of approach we saw from Brook against the Lions last week wouldn’t be acceptable: he’s about to embark on the biggest run of his career, every moment in the middle is precious, and after a few minutes he runs across the field and gives away his wicket. The bowlers have to bowl a spell, maybe play for an hour and then come back and bowl again, knowing that there will be consequences if they bowl a bad ball. When players talk about the value of warm-up games, that’s what they mean.

Stokes talked about playing ‘balls to the wall’ cricket against the Lions. I have no idea what that means, but I’m pretty sure we didn’t witness it. It’s true that the fixture list no longer allows for the kind of preparation teams they used to take for granted, but I think England would have benefited from playing a top-flight match against a state side and not an inside-the-park runout against the reserves.

But I am still extremely excited about what lies ahead. I’ve always thought the best thing about being a professional player is the travel – and for an English cricketer, there’s nothing better than a tour of Australia. What an opportunity this team has now, what an opportunity to seize the initiative in Perth – and then go on to win the Ashes.