One area with a range of possible outcomes is rotation. The group performed quite well in 2025, finishing eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Max Fried And Carlos Rodon were the biggest reasons for that success. Fried excelled in a career-high 195 1/3 innings, showcasing his signature control and groundball tendencies en route to a fourth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate of 25.7% and reducing home runs. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as he did Cam Schlittler in a call for the second half.
The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their sophomore campaigns. Yet there are also downside risks associated with injuries, underperformance and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Kool will return at some point after going missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Before that, he only pitched for half a season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He’s now 35 years old and his last full-season workload comes in 2023, when he won the AL Cy Young award.
Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole “had a good rehab” without “the hiccups” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a matter of or he will perform well when he returns. The question is whether he will be able to maintain his pre-injury top-level performance now that he is in his mid-30s and free of injury. There’s also the issue of volume, as even a return of Cole in June would leave several months of innings for other starters to cover.
Rodón is in a similar spot after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow in October. He’s more likely to start off the 60-day injured list than Cole in 2026, with Rodón looking to return in late April or early May. He’s two years younger than Cole, so there’s less of a risk of him suddenly declining. The question for Rodón is whether he can repeat his performance from 2025. A look at his Statcast page offers reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaks and offspeed run values all ranking in the 91st percentile or better. That said, he was more of a mid-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Both he and Cole are under contract through 2028.
As for the younger arms, much of the success of the rotation depends on Warren improving and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a larger sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offering. While his fastball ranked in the 95th percentile in terms of run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches were areas of contention. His slider was his most important breaking pitch, but Statcast found him 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both at least 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he will need to tighten up his secondary offerings and cut back on hard contact if he wants to become a true mid-rotation starter.
Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in an all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, although there are similar questions about his secondary supply and control. Statcast had a negative assessment of his curveball and slider, which he used together only 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of this, of course, detracts from the value of his plus fastball. However, he will have to make adjustments to maintain last year’s performance.
Besides those arms, the club has that too Luis Gil and newly acquired Ryan Weers at hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024, but threw only 57 innings over 11 starts last year due to a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was good on the surface, but his peripheral numbers – 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP – put him about a run and a half higher. His struggles with control are well known at this point, and he also suffered a 10.0% drop in strikeout rate in 2025.
Weathers has an 86th percentile fastball velocity, but he has thrown just 281 major-league innings since his debut in 2021. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings due to left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees have selected four suitors to acquire him, giving him a chance to utilize his fastball while betting on better health. Otherwise the team did Ryan Yarbrough And Paul Blackbrand as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence when they have significant innings to cover. In the meantime, Clarke Schmidt underwent UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be an option until the second half, if at all.
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Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
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