How the changing face of South East Queensland is impacting house prices and rentals – realestate.com.au

Southeast Queensland (SEQ) has undergone one of the most profound demographic shifts in the country since 2019, shaping housing demand across the region.

Population flows have affected who lives where, the types of housing we need, and the pace of price and rent growth in each local market.

Over the six years from 2018-19 to 2023-24, the twelve local government areas (LGAs) in the SEQ region grew by almost 400,000 people, an average of 1,200 residents per week, and almost 2,000 per week in 2023-24 alone.

The mix of domestic and foreign migration differs greatly across the region, creating two different housing market dynamics.

When we look at the data from the SEQ region’s twelve LGAs – Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich, Redland, Noosa, Toowoomba, Somerset, Scenic Rim and Lockyer Valley – one insight stands out.

Areas that attracted more domestic migrants saw stronger increases in house prices, while those that attracted more foreign migrants saw the biggest increases in average advertised rents, especially for residential properties.

These population flows and migration patterns – net interstate migration (NIM) heavy versus net overseas migration (NOM) heavy – have become the defining feature of the SEQ housing landscape since 2019.

A region transformed by migration

While population growth has declined modestly from the 2022-2023 peak, SEQ expansion remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

But the composition of that growth – who is moving – is even more important.

Domestic migration (NIM) increased sharply in SEQ’s Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast value corridors – areas that offer relative affordability, space and lifestyle.

Source: PropTrack, ABS

Meanwhile, net overseas migration (NOM) is overwhelmingly concentrated in Brisbane and the Gold Coast LGAs, with students, skilled newcomers and young professionals settling in these global cities.

This divergence has determined the demand for housing in the SEQ region.

Source: PropTrack, ABS

Domestic magnets are seeing strong home price growth

We compared house price growth (2019-2025) with domestic migration intensity (where intensity is the number of migrants per 1000 inhabitants since 2018, using 2018 ERP as a basis).

A modest positive correlation shows that local and interstate movers have driven the strongest growth in detached house prices in SEQ.

Source: PropTrack, ABS

LGAs with the strongest cumulative domestic inflows since 2018 – Ipswich, Logan, Moreton Bay and the Sunshine Coast – have also recorded some of the biggest increases in average house prices.

This is because internal migration is dominated by families and upgraders. Sydney and Melbourne have dominated interstate migration to Queensland since 2019, followed by regional NSW and regional VIC.

These domestic movers are buying rather than renting because they are looking for relative value, and many are looking for more space, larger blocks and detached homes.

Ipswich, Logan, Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay represent lifestyle and affordability corridors where buyers are looking for value and larger homes. This continued demand from buyers has significantly increased home prices since 2019.

Overseas arrivals fuel unit pressure

We also examined the relationship between the intensity of overseas migration (NOM per 1,000) and rental growth.

While domestic migrants have reshaped some SEQ regions, overseas migration has reshaped other regions.

Areas that attracted more foreign migrants have experienced faster increases in unit rents.

Source: PropTrack, ABS

Brisbane and the Gold Coast are now NOM dominant SEQ markets. These LGAs have seen a rapid increase in unit rental prices.

Overseas arrivals rent disproportionately when they first settle, and tend to cluster near universities, hospitals, public transport and employment opportunities in the CBD. In Brisbane and the Gold Coast, NOM flows rose to record levels over 2023-2024, in line with the tightening of rental markets to historic lows.

In contrast, NOM has virtually no correlation with residential rental growth, and a negative correlation with unit price growth, which emphasizes that NOM mainly works to shape rental demand.

A two-tiered SEQ market

It is clear that different migration factors create different housing pressures. Domestic movers have driven the rise in detached house prices, while foreign arrivals have driven the sharp rise in rental prices, especially for units.

Net overseas migration in South East Queensland is concentrated in the Gold Coast and Brisbane LGAs. Photo: Getty

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This isn’t just a COVID phenomenon, it’s a shift shaping SEQ’s housing needs.

Looking ahead

As SEQ prepares for just under a decade of growth in the run-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, understanding these forces will be critical to planning the region’s housing supply, infrastructure and future shape of neighborhoods.

SEQ is evolving into a multi-centric region with diverse demand factors. Global city dynamics in Brisbane and the Gold Coast are driving high net overseas migration, tight rental markets and strong demand for units.

Regions with a larger domestic base will continue to need family homes, townhouses and new land supplies. While NOM-heavy regions need more rental supply, build to rent, student housing, higher density approvals and housing around education and health areas.

Understanding these migration channels is critical because these forces determine not only who buyers and renters are, but also what types of homes they want.