For the first time since 2021, the drivers’ championship will go to the penultimate race of the season: McLaren’s Lando Norris can take the title during the Qatar Grand Prix.
Since the epic season that ended with Max Verstappen finally winning his first world championship in a final race showdown with Lewis Hamilton, the championship has been decided at this point for the past three years.
Verstappen has won every time, securing the 2022 title in Japan with four rounds to go and wrapping up the 2023 championship one race early when Qatar held a lock in October. Last year’s championship was decided in Verstappen’s favor in Las Vegas, with Norris being the last driver in the race on that occasion.
This time, Norris leads teammate Oscar Piastri and Verstappen by 24 points upon arrival in Qatar. Lusail hosts another sprint weekend, meaning a total of 33 points are on the table, and Norris only needs to beat his two rivals by two points this weekend (or one point if he wins Sunday’s Grand Prix) with a further 25 points up for grabs in Abu Dhabi.
With a top seven finish in the sprint, Norris can guarantee the championship with a win in the feature race, regardless of where Piastri and Verstappen are placed.
The Grand Prix victory is crucial because it means that if the points are level, Norris cannot be beaten by either driver. He would be guaranteed more wins than Verstappen over the course of the season, and even if Piastri equaled his win tally by the end of the year, Norris would become champion thanks to more second places.
For the chasing duo, the equation is also simple: they cannot lose more than one point to Norris during the race weekend, or points if he wins on Sunday.
The Sprint format means that Norris can take 25 points for the win, but if he fails to score in the Sprint and Piastri or Verstappen combine a top two in the Sprint – the first is worth eight points, the second is worth seven – with second place in the Grand Prix, which is worth 18 points, they will match his score, or surpass him by one point.
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