With just over six weeks to go before the much-anticipated Ashes kick off, the series has already taken a potentially defining twist with the news that Australian captain Pat Cummins remains a major doubt for the opener in Perth with an ongoing back stress problem that could yet completely affect his participation.
Cummins, who has been in rehabilitation since the tour of the West Indies in July, has subsequently been ruled out of the upcoming white-ball series against India in a race to regain his fitness after resurfacing the struggles that plagued his early international career.
While the Australian camp has played down the local media reports and still expects the 32-year-old to play a significant role, a potential absence would be a significant blow not just to Australia, but to the series as a whole.
However, it could boost England’s chances of triumphing Down Under for the first time since 2010-11.
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Cummins – The bowler
In his primary role, Cummins is one of the premier fast bowlers in the world. He became only the eighth Australian to reach 300 Test wickets during the World Test Championship final against South Africa at Lord’s earlier this year, having previously been the joint fifth-fastest bowler in history with 150 Test wickets (31 matches).
His Ashes record is also formidable with a career-high 91 dismissals in 19 matches, including a series-high 21 the last time the Urn was contested in Australia, and he has also claimed Joe Root’s top prize 11 times – the most of any bowler along with Jasprit Bumrah.
While Cummins’ likely replacement, Scott Boland – who scored a remarkable 6-7 on his Test debut against England at the MCG in 2021 – provides solid cover to fill the void with his consistent form in recent years, this only raises wider concerns about the depth of Australia’s bowling stock.
Given the long-standing dominance of the historic Australian bowling quartet, the opportunities for others to stake a claim are limited, while England arrive with a cartel that has all had reasonable exposure to the Test arena, even if they remain largely inexperienced in their own right with fewer caps between them than Mitchell Starc (Ben Stokes aside).
Period of transition
With Starc (35), Josh Hazlewood (34) and Nathan Lyon (37) all entering the twilight of their international careers, Australia will soon face a transition period to their red-ball bowling attack.
Sean Abbott, 33, was the reserve bowler in the Caribbean but a baggy green continued to elude the regular white ball, while perennial 12th man Michael Neser (35) has fallen down the pecking order since Boland’s arrival on the international stage and has failed to add to his two appearances since December 2022.
Speedster Lance Morris will be unavailable after opting to undergo back surgery, but injury-prone Jhye Richardson could be in contention for a return after four years away, while uncapped duo Brendan Doggett (31) and Fergus O’Neill (24) are likely to be in the conversation.
Cummins – The batter
Cummins is not only an essential part of the Australian team with the ball, but also with the bat in hand as a valuable all-rounder.
While an average of 16.82 and three half-centuries in Test cricket may not jump off the page, Cummins has in no way proven that he is no pushover with the bat, posting the then fastest IPL fifty (14 balls) in 2022 and most importantly scoring a crucial unbeaten 44, which guided Australia over the line in the thrilling first Ashes Test at Edgbaston in 2023.
A move from Cummins to Boland would significantly weaken the Aussies’ lower order behind wicketkeeper Alex Carey, and with Josh Tongue in particular proving to be a possible solution to England’s long-standing problems with removing the tail, Ben Stokes’ side will be confident this is an area where they can have an advantage.
Cummins – The Leader
Given the strenuous nature of fast bowling in Test matches, it is a rarity for fast players to take on leadership roles, but Cummins has proven exceptional at balancing his performance and captaincy.
The talismanic leader has led from the front and played a key role in masterminding victories over India in the World Test Championship and ICC World Cup in 2023, as well as an Ashes series, all within a two-year period – the only Test captain in history to do so.
Steve Smith will take on the role if Cummins is unavailable, which shouldn’t prove too disruptive given his previous fame, but it will be the second time in a row that Australia have been forced into a captaincy change on the eve of a home Ashes match after Tim Paine resigned in November 2021 and was subsequently replaced by Cummins – Australia won the series 4-0.
England are facing a similar concern surrounding captain Ben Stokes, who is on the cusp of a full recovery from a shoulder injury suffered against India, although the workload of a grueling five-match series could still prove to be a challenge for the all-rounder to emerge unscathed, with England’s performances tending to suffer in recent years when Stokes has been missing from the side.
The build-up to the Ashes was expected to be dominated by the make-up of Australia’s top order – likely a decision between back-in-form Marnus Labuschagne or 20-year-old hotshot Sam Konstas – as well as the England spin conundrum and the Ollie Pope-Jacob Bethell debate, but it’s the suitability of both influential captains that has potentially the most decisive subplot yet for the outcome of the series could yield.
READ MORE: Australian Pat Cummins will miss the first Ashes Test and possibly a whole series – reports
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