How do bumpy greens affect PGA Tour pros? Here’s what the data says

It’s a common talking point of West Coast Swing: As the day gets later, the greens get harder.

That’s thanks to Poa annua grass, which has a reputation for becoming bumpier and more unpredictable later in the day due to the grass’s rapid afternoon growth and seed head production. With Poa greens in play at Torrey Pines this week – plus two more upcoming Tour stops, at Pebble Beach and Riviera – we dug into the data to determine whether setting up the PGA Tour actually gets more difficult as the day progresses.

The math behind bumpy greens

We looked at more than 9,000 official laps tracked by the Tour’s ShotLink technology on these three courses over the past ten seasons. Across the board, putt rates decrease from different distance ranges for players with later tee times. Take putts from 5 to 10 feet: for players teeing off before 9 a.m. local time, the success rate over the past decade 52.3%. From 9 a.m. to 11 a.m., that number drops just a touch, to 52.2%. It drops from noon to 2 p.m 50%.

Because competing players with later tee times inherently make more putts than their competition on weekends, let’s isolate that data to just rounds 1 and 2. For putts of 4 to 8 feet, players who tee off before 9 a.m. are playing local make. 64.9% from their wells. In the group from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m., that number drops to 61.5%.

A decrease of 3.4% It may sound insignificant, but the margins between success and failure are razor thin in professional golf. That difference represents the 4- to 8-foot stroke speed difference on the 8th toughest course on Tour in that metric in 2025 (Sedgefield Country Club) and the 25th toughest (Country Club of Jackson).

Which of these locations is most affected by the flow of the day? When the times are split into two blocks, the early birds at Riv have the clearest advantage. For the past decade, players who tee off before 10 a.m. local time have made a profit 3.4% more putts from four to eight feet than their counterparts who tee off after that time. The differences for Torrey Pines South (-0.3%) and Pebble Beach (-2.3%) are smaller.

Players who have finished in the top 10 in these three tournaments – the Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational – over the past decade have 70.4% of their four- to eight-foot putts that week. Players who finished outside the top 10 earned only 63.3%. One putt – or bump on the green – can make up that difference.

What about sustained strokes? Does golf’s most comprehensive putting statistic reflect the trend, and if so, how big can the difference be?

Again, from an analytical perspective, Riviera is the most affected of the three courses. The difference in strokes gained when putting per round is just over a tenth of a stroke when comparing players over the past ten years who teed off before and after 10am local time. For Riv, that number has almost doubled – an average difference of two-tenths of a stroke per round played.

Which players have performed best at these locations in recent years? A handful of elite putters have benefited from the struggles of their peers.

MAX HOMA

Perhaps it’s to be expected with his West Coast roots, but Max Homa has been one of the most consistent putters on these Poa surfaces throughout his career. His +0.77 strokes gained per round in the Riviera-Pebble-Torrey triumvirate is the best among players with 20 or more rounds since 2020. In his two wins in that stretch – the 2021 Genesis Invitational and the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open – Homa averaged 1.31 strokes gained per round.

The numbers are even more impressive when we pull the data back a full decade. Homa has averaged just 0.36 three-putts per round, the fourth-fewest among qualified players since 2016. His 28.3 percent success rate from 35 to 20 feet is also the eighth-best in that span.

Homa has holed 73.3% of his putts from four to eight feet on these courses over the past six years, the fifth highest success rate among qualified players. In 2025, Homa was actually better from that level on these traditionally tougher lineups (71.1%) than he was the rest of the season (62.8%).

COLLIN MORIKAWA

When Collin Morikawa won his second major at the 2021 Open, he became the first player to do so in eight or fewer career starts since Bobby Jones. There are accolades on every square inch of Morikawa’s resume, but if there’s one aspect of his game that has drawn criticism so far, it’s his putting. Over the past six PGA Tour seasons, he has ranked outside the top 110 in strokes gained five times.

However, that changes significantly when Morikawa stands with both feet on the familiar soil of the west coast. Since 2020, he has made 1.97 putts of 10 feet or longer per round at the trio of locations in question, the second-highest rate of any player. He also ranks among the leaders in putting from 10 to 20 feet (4th) and average number of feet putts per round (7th). It has helped him finish in the top three at both Riviera (2022) and Torrey Pines (2023).

MAVERICK McNEALY

It’s fitting that a former Stanford star is joining a pair of Cal Bears. Maverick McNealy ranks second since 2020 in average foot putts made per round at these three courses (78’2″). He ranks 5th in strokes gained per round (+0.70) and 12th in 10- to 20-foot putt percentage (29.1%) at these locations since the ’20 season. It makes sense, then, that three of McNealy’s top four finishes are on the PGA Tour have entered California.

WYNDHAM CLARK

In the third round of his victory at Pebble Beach two years ago, it seemed like Wyndham Clark was making every putt he looked at. On a rain-soaked Saturday, Clark rolled a whopping 189 feet, 9 inches putts en route to a 60, his lowest score yet on Tour. He hit four putts of at least 24 feet on the front nine that day alone.

During Clark’s career, however, it’s not just the long careers that await him in California. His 61.3% success rate from 5 to 10 feet on these three West Coast courses is the fourth-best among all players since 2020. Clark gained more than 2.26 strokes during his two measured rounds at The American Express last week en route to a T13 finish.