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With the Federal Reserve that the policy announced on Wednesday 17 September, a closely followed trader has drawn up an accurate playbook at the level for the navigation of the next step from Bitcoin. In his weekly “Market Outlook #51”, published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradadernik) knows both long and short triggers for Ostium Research around a tight cluster of resistance at $ 117.5k $ 120k and a “line in the sand” support at $ 112k and in the frameworks in the quarter and in the BTC and in the BTC and in-frameworkss And the fifteen minutes and the fifteen minutes and the abandoned.
How to exchange Bitcoin in September FOMC
Nik’s higher time read Starts with a strong weekly closure that opened the August near $ 115.3k and, crucial, kept the price above $ 112k. “This is now the line in the sand for short -term order,” he writes, warning that a weekly closure below would reopen the route to the local low points of July around $ 107k and, in a deeper flush, the $ 99k swing low. Moreover, he emphasizes $ 117.5K as the next bending; A clean acceptance of more than $ 120k would set up a fast run on all time, where $ 123k is the first big limit on the daily period.
In the event, his directional bias remains conditional instead of dogmatic. On the long side, he is in favor of a cattle swing early in the week: “On the long side you want to see a sharp flush lower … in $ 113.5k, where you can make bids with invalidity on a daily end under $ 112k,” focused on a reaction back to $ 117.5k (TP1) in the Fomc (TP2) in the Fomc (TP2) in (TP2) in the Fomc (TP2) in (TP2) in the Fomc (TP2).
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Conversely, if BTC grinds higher without the flush, his short plan is to “short $ 119k pre-fomc” too short, then “add … on acceptance back below $ 117.5k after the first”, with $ 112k as the first goal and range to track down for lower lows as the structure weakened. The trader admits that in the coming weeks “much more are unclear … with many variables”, but his basic case still represents that “the second half of the Q4 will be very strong.”
The set -up lands while BTC makes around $ 115k for the decision – a zone that is framed as crucial. On the way to the weekly close, the market commentary emphasized that a persistent recovery of $ 114k is a condition for renewed momentum, in which a wide -tracked technician argues: “The goal is not for Bitcoin to break $ 117k … The goal is that Bitcoin $ 114k will return to the support.” During the weekend and until Tuesday, the BTC price action remained in that band, so that both the upward break to $ 119k – $ 123k and the approaching sweeping $ 113.5k – $ 112k wipe on the table.
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Macro context increases the deployment. Markets in general expect the FED to reduce its policy percentage on 17 September by 25 BPS, so that the target range shifted from 4.50% to 4.25% – A basic line Nik is explicitly building in its calendar.
Nevertheless, traders are aimed at the guidance of chairman Jerome Powell and the updated “Dot Plot”, which will form the path for extra cuts in the end of the year. While a cut is priced, the tone – whether the Fed indicates a shallow or accelerated relaxation path – is the catalyst who dissolves the tight $ 114k – $ 119k -coil from BTC.
Positioning offers further texture for Nik’s plan. He marks three months on an annual basis and the distribution between Bitcoin and Altcoin open interest, together with concentrated and a month of liquidation suitcases of one month just below the location and above the recent range of reach context for why he prefers reactive lungs on a downward flush or blurring the movement near $ 119k- $ 120. The framework leans heavily on acceptance/rejection around well -defined levels instead of trying to make the policy result itself in the front run.
Bottom Line: In the Ostium Playbook, Bulls want a controlled dip that holds $ 112k on a daily closing and then a recovery of $ 117.5K forces on the way to $ 119k – $ 123k; Bears get their best chance if the prize runs in $ 119k-$ 120k pre-fomc and then loses $ 117.5k about the reaction. With BTC glued in the middle of $ 110k and the market that has already made a quarter -point cutting base, the catalyst can come down on Powell’s nuance.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 115,427.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com
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