Rich Dotson And Garret Price are back for one of their most popular annual shows: the true value of rookie draft picks. With the Combine running and rookie drafts around the corner, they break down where the picks actually hit, where they turn into roster cloggers, and why “not worth a scoop” is meaningless unless you say which one First.
Listen to this episode:
🎧 Apple podcasts
🎙️ Spotify
▶️ YouTube
The data behind hits and why the top matters
Garret explains the scoring levels they follow to define the results. A hit requires at least one Tier 1 season, or multiple Tier 2 seasons, with thresholds adjusted by position. Quarterbacks need the best six seasons to count as Level 1, running backs and wide receivers need the top twelve, and tight ends need the top three. The point is simple: if a player never reaches at least level 2, that choice never really helped your starting lineup.
After adding the 2024 class to the spreadsheet, they list early hits that have already been recorded, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Drake Maye, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr.And Bo Nixwhile noticing many names still needs time to prove it.
What Hit Rates Say About Trading Choices
The biggest advantage is the stability at the top. As of 2018, the 1.01 has a 100% hit rate in their sample, and the top four picks are hit about three-quarters of the time, with even more value if you include ‘middle’ outcomes. After that, the first round becomes much less differentiated, and they point to a strange recent trend where 1.09 to 1.12 produces slightly better results than 1.05 to 1.08.
They dig into a possible reason: Quarterbacks are often pushed into that 1.05 to 1.08 range in Superflex, and non-elite rookie quarterbacks are harder to “hit” by their definition. The broader lesson remains the same. Outside of the top level, it often makes sense to move down, move up to a proven veteran or move into stronger future classes.
Why second-round picks are the ‘Ponzi scheme’
They are harping on the second round of depreciation. Once you get into the 2.01 to 2.12 range, the hit rate collapses and third-round picks become real dart throws. Their advice for contenders is aggressive: If you can turn a first into a proven producer for several years, that’s usually the winning bet, because many late firsts never become lineup players.
Late Draft Strategy: Load up on the running backs and tight ends
Garret also tests a theory about late rookie concepts. If you trade late seconds and thirds for multiple quarters and fifths, the position most likely to return value is running back. Late-round running backs can quickly become “ships to shore” if injuries occur, and that short window could still change in future seconds. They add that tight ends are often pushed downfield by the wide receiver-hunting community, which can create pockets of value in the late second and early third.
Discover more tools and resources to stay ahead of your competition.
📊 Rookie big signs
📝 Rookie mock concepts
📈 Dynasty Rankings
📱Dynasty Nerds app
🧱 IDP Hub
👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league.
Start using the movie room today!
FFPC: New users: use promotional code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC orphan team!
#Hit #Rates #Rookie #Draft #Picks #Dynasty #Fantasy #Football #Podcast #Dynasty #Nerds