History says that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall by 60% if this key support does not hold

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $102,000, a key long-term support. Analysts warn of a possible 60% drop to $40,000 if the level does not hold.

At the time of writing, the asset’s price was $103,000, representing a modest 1% gain over the past 24 hours. Over the past week, it has fallen 7%, with a daily trading volume of almost $61.7 billion.

50W SMA and historical fault patterns

Market history shows that every time Bitcoin lost the 50W SMA, a sharp correction followed. Analyst Ali Martinez be to several examples where this support failed: a 50% drop in 2011, 67% in 2014, 60% in 2018 and 66% at the end of 2021. The 2020 crash during the COVID outbreak also saw a 55% drop after the same collapse.

Martínez stated:

“Bitcoin has seen an average decline of 60% every time it lost the 50W SMA as support.”

Based on that pattern, a confirmed break below $102,000 would portend a potential move towards $40,000. This level is now seen as a make-or-break area for Bitcoin’s longer-term structure.

Key Short-Term Levels and Price Reactions

So analyst Lennaert Snyder marked $102,000 as a short-term support level to monitor. Noting that the 4-hour chart is still trending upwards, he added:

“I prefer to hold key support at $102,000 to avoid losing the 4H uptrend.”

He also pointed to $107,100 as a key level for bulls to make a comeback.

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Analyst Ted observed that Bitcoin fell below the EMA-50 and emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He explained,

“A weekly close below the EMA-50 means the dump is just the beginning.”

Meanwhile, key liquidity levels are around $90,000 and $126,000, with the possibility of a decline to fill the CME gap before any recovery occurs.

Market structure, MACD signal and open interest

Linton Worm be to a confirmed bearish MACD cross and linked it to previous cycle tops. “In 2021 it predicted the crash. Now the same thing is happening,” he said, adding that $70,000 could be the next support if pressure continues.

Meanwhile, data from Darkfost showed a sharp drop in Bitcoin open interest on major exchanges. Since October 10, open interest has fallen by more than $10 billion, led by Binance, which saw a drop of $4 billion. Bybit and Gate.io followed with declines of $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Leverage remains low and confidence among traders appears limited as the correction unfolds.