Has Bitcoin’s cycle top arrived yet? Key statistics are alarmingly low

Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 as call option yields hit cycle lows, demand rises and on-chain data shows continued accumulation by large holders.

Holiday conditions have thinned liquidity, and recent data points to cautious trading in derivatives as long-term holders continue to add.

Options data shows shift in market positioning

CME options data shows that open interest for Bitcoin call options peaked in December 2024, close to recent price highs above $90,000. Since then, call rates have steadily declined and are now near cycle lows. This pattern follows historical behavior, with call rates often falling after strong price increases dissipate. Crypto analyst CW said,

“$BTC CME options open interest signals a bottom in buying pressure.”

Lower call positioning shows that traders are no longer pricing in a near-term upside. Meanwhile, open interest on put options has risen, indicating greater demand for downside coverage rather than new upside exposure.

Additionally, increased put option activity often occurs during periods of uncertainty. While it may reflect downside risk, similar circumstances have also occurred during the price stabilization phases. CW noted that “an increase in the number of put options can also be a signal of a potential market turnaround,” especially if the positioning on one side becomes crowded.

Data about the chain shows a different trend. Bitcoin inflows into accumulation addresses have increased, with several major spikes recorded as the price trades below recent highs. These wallets tend to hold for long periods and rarely move money, indicating that large holders are adding to their positions rather than selling.

Bitcoin price trades between key support and resistance

Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 at the time of writing, down just under 1% over the past day and slightly higher this week. Earlier this week, the value fell from above $90,000 to below $86,500 before buyers stepped in and pushed the value back up. Activity slowed over the weekend, followed by another failed push towards $90,400.

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On the 4-hour chart, BTC continues to move sideways, with little follow-through. The $86,500 area held as support after several tests, while selling pressure near $88,000 kept the price in check. Michael van de Poppe said That “There’s just some chores going on in the markets,‘, adding that a break above $88,000 would improve the structure in the near term.

Liquidity data elsewhere shows strong selling interest between $90,000 and $95,000, with strong buying interest between $83,000 and $85,000. Merlijn De Handelaar stated that “huge sales walls‘ remain above the current price, while buyers continue to intervene during dips.