On Tuesday, Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) has updated an August homeownership and household growth report with an addendum adding a low-immigration scenario.
Under the low-immigration scenario, the number of homeowners would decline by about 88,000 to 99,000 per year compared to a baseline scenario that assumes historical immigration levels. The number of renter households would also decrease by between 74,000 and 86,000 annually.
The authors behind the report“Projections of Homeownership Rates and Household Growth by Tenure for 2025-2035,” updated the study to reflect the possibility of relatively low population growth due to international immigration over the next decade.
The addendum comes as the immigrant population in the US is declining. After peaking at 53.3 million in January, the immigrant population fell by 1.3 million in June. according to data from Pew Research. Since then, further deportations and restrictions on legal immigration have continued, likely reducing the immigrant population even further.
The Harvard study examined how low levels of immigration could affect homeownership rates and household growth, compared to a mid-range scenario.
The mid-scenario projection assumes annual net international immigration of approximately 870,000 between 2025 and 2035, reflecting average historical immigration levels over the past thirty years. By comparison, the low-immigration population assumes net immigration of 420,000, roughly half of the total.
“The decline in cross-border immigration beginning in late 2024 and the current political environment increase the likelihood that population gains from net international immigration in 2025-2035 will be below average and therefore lower than those in the mid-range projections used in the analyzes above,” the report said.
According to the report, overall household growth, including new native-born and foreign-born residents, would be 20% lower in the low-immigration scenario than in the medium scenario. In practice, this would amount to 6.9 million new households, compared to 8.6 million in the mid-range scenario.
Because the immigrant population is generally quite young, national household growth would be distorted in the low-immigration scenario. Nearly 60% of the decline in household growth in the low immigration scenario would be borne by households under 45 years of age.
The report concludes that this could have a slightly positive effect on future homeownership, because young people are less likely to own their own home. However, the impact would be minimal, between 0.1% and 0.2%.
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