Gold’s path to $7,000: insights from VRIC 2026

Central banks support the gold price

The price increases of gold through 2025 and early 2026 are caused by several factors. One of the most impactful has been the continued purchases by central banks around the world.

This is evident from the figures of the World Gold Council latest report on gold demand trendsCentral banks bought a total of 863 tons of the precious metal last year. Although the quantity is less than the more than 1,000 tons purchased over the past three years, it remains well above the historical average.

Both the World Gold Council and VRIC panelists believe that central bank gold purchasing will remain high through 2026, providing crucial support for the yellow metal’s price.

Behind these moves is a desire to diversify foreign reserves away from US dollar-denominated assets such as government bonds. Once considered a stable and reliable investment for central banks, high budget deficits and trillions in debt have dulled the luster of these instruments over the past two decades.

Contributing to the deterioration in trust are US actions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“Since 2014, central banks have been net selling US Treasuries and piling up gold, which became exponential when the US dollar was weaponized against Russia,” Piepenburg said.

“Arming a neutral reserve asset was a big no-no in terms of respect, trust and admiration for an already over-spent U.S. Treasury, and by proxy, the U.S. dollar,” he added.

However, Piepenburg made it clear that he does not see this accumulation of gold by central banks as a move away from the US dollar, but more as a means to prepare for a repricing of the dollar.

He also believes there will be greater use of gold as a net settlement asset.

For his part, Garofalo said the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 350 percent in the past 50 years, up from 100 percent in the 1970s. It has created a tricky situation for the US Federal Reserve, which has to walk a fine line between how high it can raise interest rates without triggering a significant reset of the currency. Overall, America’s debt of over $34 trillion, combined with trillions in annual budget deficits, is undermining central banks’ confidence in holding American debt.

Garofalo further explained that gold is not a commodity; its value is not determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand.

“It’s a monetary instrument, and monetary instruments remain relative to each other based on relative interest rates. So it’s that lack of trust that actually drives capital out of government debt and into central banks, through Tether, through individuals, into gold as a monetary instrument,” he said.

Stablecoin issuers are chasing gold

The panelists also noted stablecoin issuers’ interest in gold.

Teter, for example now contains 16 tons of gold in reserves, worth more than 2.5 billion dollars.

“Issuers of these stablecoins give citizens their electronic dollar, the issuers then take that dollar to buy US Treasuries – good for Uncle Sam – they then arbitrage the returns on those treasuries for themselves and take profits. The main thing we need to look at with Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL), Tether or JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is that they take the profits from the stablecoin and buy gold. That’s the great irony.” said Piepenburg.

He explained that stablecoins were introduced to back the US dollar, but their creators have since added new products backed by gold, which is fundamentally more stable than fiat currency.

Overall, Piepenburg and Garofalo agreed that the crypto market’s entry into gold is a positive sign and will catalyze consolidation on the business side of the sector, while also making it more accessible to investors.

“Having a new player, another pool of capital not traditionally present in the space, is part of the same phenomenon that is driving generalists back into our industry for the first time in many decades,” Garofalo said.

Gold’s long-term drivers are intact

The panel made a number of key points that should be important to investors.

Gold’s historic run has some investors worried that they missed the boat and that it is now too expensive.

Cambone asked Garofalo about this issue, noting that investors must learn to focus more on gold’s role as a stable store of value and recognize the erosion of fiat currencies.

“Every fiat currency ever created has eventually failed, and so will the U.S. dollar. It’s like that saying about bankruptcy: it happens gradually and then suddenly,” Garofalo said.

“That’s what’s going to happen to the US dollar: the erosion of confidence will be resolved.”

While the panelists agreed that the gold bull market will end at some point, no one believes that will happen anytime soon. They noted that the driving forces behind the current market show no signs of abating.

US foreign and trade policy has emphasized traditional Western trade alliances and pushed Russia, China and the rest of the BRICS countries to move away from the US dollar.

This comes on top of a looming debt crisis in several major economies, especially the US.

Is it time for golden juniors to shine?

That is not to say that the group advocated jumping directly onto the bandwagon; they also agreed that investors could expect a significant pullback in gold, an event that occurred just days after the end of VRIC.

However, they emphasized the importance and safety of holding gold-linked assets during the current cycle.

This can be in the form of physical gold or exchange traded products. They also noted that, due to the rise in gold prices, the fledgling exploration sector has seen a revival.

Garofalo said juniors have been severely undercapitalized for years. “Gold reserves in the ground have declined by 40 percent since 2012,” he said, adding: “We cannot increase supply to meet the increased gold price. All we can do is mine lower quality material that would otherwise be wasted in a lower gold price environment.”

His sentiment was echoed by Still, who sees a wave of mergers and acquisitions coming as major industry companies look to fill their pipelines. “If you’re a big producer, you try to find gold; it might take five to 10 years to find it. You’re going to spend millions on it. Or do you buy it from a junior explorer or developer?” he said.

Still explained that, on a per-ounce basis, the cost of purchasing a company involved in the exploration and development work is likely cheaper than conducting the exploration yourself.

Gold price predictions for 2026 and beyond

With several options available to investors looking for exposure to gold, the discussion turned to price predictions.

Garofalo was blunt when he mentioned $7,000, while Piepenburg was a little more nuanced.

“I think we’re only halfway through an eight-year cycle in gold, so you could see $7,000, $8,000, but that’s despite unforeseeable legislative or other black swans,” he said.

“Based on the fundamentals, the direction of gold, secular, is north,” he said.