“Gold and silver remained highly volatile, recovering from the day’s lows but ending slightly weaker. Expectations of further Fed easing supported sentiment as recent US data pointed to mild economic weakness, raising the chance of a rate cut next week to almost 90%. Speculation about Kevin Hassett possibly replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chairman also added a dovish tone. Markets are now awaiting the ADP jobs report and have September PCE data postponed for policy guidance, while US Treasury yields have eased after an earlier rise due to a global bond sell-off, gold has support at $4,175-4,145, while silver has support at $57.70-56.85, while resistance is at $58.95-59.45, while gold has support at Rs1,28,650-1,27,850 from Rs1,80,750-1,79,200, while there is resistance at Rs1,82,810, 1,83,670.
Fed expectations and political chatter are driving the mood in gold
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, said precious metals “remained highly volatile, recovering from the day’s lows but ending slightly weaker.” He noted that expectations of further Fed easing continued to drive sentiment as “recent US data pointed to mild economic weakness, raising the probability of a rate cut next week to almost 90%.”
Political speculation was further amplified, he said: “Speculation about Kevin Hassett possibly replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chairman also added a mild tone.” Kalantri added that US Treasury yields had fallen after an earlier rise “driven by a global bond sell-off.”
For the near term, Kalantri estimates global gold support at $4,175-4,145 and resistance at $4,270-4,295. In India, gold sees support at Rs 1,28,650-1,27,850, with resistance at Rs 1,30,450-1,31,100, the zone traders are now watching closely. The silver support is at Rs 1,80,750-1,79,200 and the resistance is at Rs 1,82,810-1,83,670.
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said “silver was back in the spotlight on Monday, continuing strong momentum after Friday’s 6% gain,” driven by decade-low Chinese inventories, concerns about supply shortages, higher borrowing costs and strong demand for ETFs. Global silver ETFs saw inflows of 9.7 million ounces last week, bringing year-to-date additions to 113.4 million ounces, she noted.
Chainwala added that gold briefly touched a six-week high of $4,264 an ounce earlier this week, supported by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut. “CME data indicates that markets now assign a nearly 87% probability of a rate cut in December,” she said. However, gold “eased to $4,220 on profit-taking” while silver fell 2% to $57.2 as traders took a breather after a six-day rally and awaited new US data.
With domestic gold prices hovering around the top of Kalantri’s resistance band at Rs 1,31,100, traders will now look to US macro data for directional cues. A stronger-than-expected outcome could dampen expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, while softer data could push the precious metal higher. Silver and crude oil volatility also remain important variables driving broader commodity sentiment.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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