Gold could surpass $7,000 after jumping 70% last year, SAMCO Securities says

After gold prices hit an all-time high of $4,880 an ounce earlier this week and will rise nearly 70% through 2025, domestic brokerage SAMCO Securities has set a long-term target of around $7,040, indicating significant upside potential as the current cycle unfolds.The broker said the new peak confirmed the strength of gold’s underlying technical structure and reinforced the long-term sustainability of the uptrend.

Looking ahead, Apurva Sheth, head of research at SAMCO Securities, believes that interim consolidations following the recent sharp rally should be seen as healthy pauses within a broader bull market and not as signs of trend exhaustion. The overall technical and macroeconomic environment continues to support a constructive outlook for gold in the coming years.Based on the Fibonacci extension analysis, SAMCO has identified the next major target zone near $7,040, indicating further upside potential as the cycle progresses.

“Gold continues to act as a reliable long-term portfolio anchor, offering stability and diversification benefits rather than merely a short-term trading opportunity,” Sheth said.

Analysts broadly expect gold prices to continue to trend higher if key conditions persist, including weaker demand for the U.S. dollar, an accommodative policy environment, cooling inflation, continued geopolitical conflict, trade-related uncertainty and a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Currently, COMEX gold is consolidating in the $4,790-$4,800 range after hitting a new all-time high above $4,887 earlier this week. Prices remain firmly above the rising trendline and 20-day EMA near $4,600-$4,650, with the previous resistance zone of $4,500-$4,550 now acting as strong support. “The current dip reflects healthy profit booking amid easing rate fears, but the broader uptrend remains strong. A sustained break above $4,850-$4,900 could open the way to near-term trading in the $5,000-$5,200 range, supported by central bank buying, safe-haven flows and accommodative policy expectations,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Gold has delivered exceptional performance over the past twelve months, with gains of almost 80% and easily outperforming other asset classes such as equities and fixed income.

On the other hand, any improvement in global stability that stimulates economic growth, strengthens demand for currency, increases inflation and prompts the US Federal Reserve to hold or raise interest rates could lead to a reflationary environment. Such a shift to a risk-on sentiment could result in a correction in the gold price.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)