The Winnipeg Jets will play their third game in four days when the action kicks off at 5:00 PM Central, giving Manitoba hockey fans their first chance to see the Utah Mammoth this season. Both hockey teams have started the 2025-26 NHL campaign on a positive note, as our Jets have posted a 6-2-0 record, while the Mammoth have surprised many people with a 7-2-0 start.
If you compare the 2 NHL club goals for and against this year (actual numbers below in the Match Up Stats section), you’ll see that both teams have scored over 3.5 goals per game and allowed just under 2.5. When you look at MoneyPucks Goals % for all situations you will see that Utah has a rating of 60.71% and is ranked 2nd in the NHL, while Winnipeg is ranked 4th at 59.57%. That explains why the teams have winning records and suggests both are playing good hockey right now.
Yet the shot and advanced statistics indicate that one club is performing at a much higher level than the other. If you look at the shot attempts (Corsi) and shots on net (Fenwick) figures, the differences between Winnipeg and Utah are startling.
JETS: Corsi – 44.2% (30th) and Fenwick – 45.13% (29th)
MAMMOTH: Corsi – 50.81% (15th) and Fenwick – 53.91% (4th)
The data gets even worse when you dig into the expected goals (xG) statistics…
JETS: xG% (all) – 46.91% (24th) & xG% (5on5) – 42.5% (32nd)
MAMMOTH: xG% (all) – 54.04% (3rd) & xG% (5on5) – 53.24% (10th)
I don’t want to sound like Chicken Little, but the Winnipeg Jets could be almost as good as they were last season. Our team relied on the True Northers goaltenders to play lights out (92.28% saves for 2nd place in the NHL) to get the record they currently have Connor Hellebuyck with the third highest score Goals saved above expected rating (+7.7). Other positive but unsustainable factors include the third-best shooting percentage and best PK numbers in the league. Additionally, Winnipeg was aided by a very easy start to the 25-26 campaign, as illustrated in the monthly strength of schedule chart below.
Since there are no pre-game skates today, we probably don’t know what the starting lineup will look like tonight. I thought Nikita Chibrikov looked good against the Flames, so I hope they continue to give him some rope to earn a permanent spot. For whatever reason, the expected lineups are coming true PuckPedia weren’t updated after the Calgary game, so the below likely won’t be what we actually see. The move of Haydn Fleury up to the 2nd defensive couple with Neal Pionk The last match resulted in better numbers, but it also meant that the bottom duo was heavily outplayed. Does that mean Lucas Schenn returns to the ice after one game and Colin Molenaar is back in the press box? Who knows.
While we wait for an answer to that, it’s time to see how ESPN shows the statistics for the two clubs and then looks at them PuckPedias probably incorrect setup….
MATCH-UP STATISTICS
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WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
The rules used last game were these, so they might be closer to what we see tonight:
Jets projected lines and D-pairs:
Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi
Niederreiter-Namestnikov-Nyquist
Iafallo-Toews-Chibrikov
Koepke-Barron-Pearson
Morrissey-DeMelo
Fleury-Pionk
Stanley Miller
Hellebuyck
Comrie
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UTAH MAMMOTH LINE
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The connections to our Winnipeg Jets at this year’s version of the Utah Mammoth are numerous, with former players like Brandon Tanev, Kevin Stenlund& Nate Schmidt all suitable for tonight’s opposition. Then you could also add Jack McBainthe son of the Jets 8th overall draft pick in 1983 (Andrew McBain), to the list. And that obscures the reality that Utah’s franchise is the same one that started in the Peg in the 1970s.
I have to admit, I’m very unsure about the Jets’ prospects for Sunday’s game. I’ve caught parts of a few Utah games and I think their team speed will cause Winnipeg’s defensive nightmares. I hope I’m wrong…wouldn’t be the first or the last time.
Go to Winnipeg!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
**The information below will be added later on Sunday evening, so check back tomorrow to see the numbers.**
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Utah Mammoth 3 Winnipeg Jets 2
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): WPG 4.50 UTH 2.84
Expected goals (5on5): WPG 2.39 UTH 2.25
The Winnipeg Jets played a pretty solid game on Sunday, winning the 5-on-5 xG battle by a narrow margin and getting plenty of looks on the power play to have more than 4 expected goals. The series of shot attempts right in front of Utah’s net indicates that they went to the dirty areas to create offense. All good signs.
The Jets’ top line started off a bit slow, but by the time the final horn sounded they had earned a lead in the xG battle. In the 2nd line with equal ice time, the Nino-Vladdy-Nyquist trio heavily outplayed their opponents, but the remaining two forward lines gave up more than they created (the 4th also gave up a GA).
The opposite of what the stats have shown after the Winnipeg games this season, with the best defensive duo on the wrong side of the xG battle, while the other two pairs performed admirably. I gave Logan Stanley his fair share of criticism during his time with the Jets, but other than an untimely botched zone exit, the big man had a very good game.
A rare occurrence, Bucky finished with a negative rating in the GSAE category, though he still walked away with a .906 save percentage.
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Despite finishing on the wrong side of the scoreboard, the Winnipeg Jets might have played their first full 60-minute performance of the season. Yes, by the end of the third period the legs of the NHL’s oldest team seemed to be running on fumes, but the boys managed to find the energy to make a final push for the equalizer.
With a few assists in the match, Josh Morrissey has improved to 7 points, which is good enough for a tie for 5th in scoring among defensemen. Mark Scheifele also scored his eighth goal of the year, tying him with the New Jersey Devils. Jack Hughes and the Ottawa Senators Shane Pinto for the NHL’s scoring lead.
When I entered the competition, I really started to worry that the return of Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg& Cole Perfetti wouldn’t be enough to straighten out the ugly advanced stats… but I’m hopeful now after Sunday’s game. Winnipeg can still play the tight defense that helped them become President’s Trophy winners last year. They also created a decent offense against a team known for being stingy this season, so the loss didn’t dampen my spirits as much as it would in other circumstances.
The real Northerners (6-3-0) takes the day off Monday and then heads out to take on another division rival in the Minnesota Wild (3-5-2) on Tuesday.
#Utah #Mammoth #Winnipeg #Jets