The Winnipeg Jets have returned from a four-game road trip in which the franchise continued to rack up points on a regular basis, taking 5 of the available 8 points with a 2-1-1 record. But despite the fact that it has been 7-3-3 since January 9 (achieving 17 of the available 26 points), the True Northers have only managed to close the gap on the last wild card spot of the Western Conference by 2 points (were down 11 points, but it’s now down to 9). At that pace, the Jets would need 65 more games in the regular season to take the narrowest lead for that final postseason position. Unfortunately there are only 27 games left….
When it comes to Winnipeg’s remaining schedule, the conclusion of the regular season is almost evenly split between expected playoff and non-playoff opposition. As of now, the Jets will play thirteen games against the top fifteen clubs in the NHL and fourteen against the bottom seventeen of the league.minus WPG). That will likely allow our hockey team to rack up points at a decent pace if they continue to play the way they always have been, but unless some other teams have a serious slump, it won’t be enough to clinch a playoff spot. What it could do is make their chances of getting lucky in the lottery smaller.
Speaking of which, according to Tankathonthe Jets have the 5th best odds before Wednesday’s action gets underway. That means they have about a 9% chance of earning one of the first two picks in the Entry Draft, but they have a better chance of going fifth (25%) or 6th (43%).
So let’s use Tankathons once again a lottery simulator to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these odds:
- Winnipeg Jets (8.7% chance)
- Chicago Blackhawks (8.1% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (56.6% chance)
- St. Louis blues (40.1% chance)
- New York Rangers (19.2% chance)
- Calgary flames (9.6% chance)
Another bit of luck, as Winnipeg and Chicago are the lucky winners of the lottery, allowing them to move up four places each. Interesting that this site still has that Gavin McKenna as the likely No. 1 overall pick since they let the Jets draft him for this mock run.
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In the Winnipeg Jets’ final game before the three-week Olympic break, the Montreal Canadiens will visit the Canada Life Center for the two Canadian franchises’ final game of the year. The Habs won 3-2 in a shootout on home ice in early December, and both clubs will have to deal with overtime losses in their most recent games.
Montreal (31-17-8) is doing well in 2025-2026 and is currently in seventh place with 70 points this season. That’s 18 more points than our Jets have put up and the Canadiens have mostly relied on a high-powered offense to reach these heights. With the 4th most goals scored (194) and the 7th best power play in the NHL (23.6%), the Habs have plenty of skaters who can make the opposition screw up any ball in the defensive or neutral zones. Defensively, however, things aren’t as impressive, as Montreal has allowed the 25th most goals conceded (186) while having the NHL’s 28th worst penalty kill (76.9%).
Winnipeg (22-25-8) is not doing well this year and is in 28th place in the rankings with a paltry 52 points. The Jets are the opposite of tonight’s opponent as they rely more on their defensive play to pick up wins. Currently, they have allowed the 12th fewest goals conceded (170) and have the 16th best PKers (79.4%), but the offense was an issue with the 24th fewest goals scored (159) and the 21st worst power play (19%).
Tonight’s match (6:00 PM CST start) should mean a lot to the Canadiens, as they currently hold the 7th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but would likely prefer to move into the 2nd and 3rd positions in the Atlantic Division to get a more favorable matchup in the postseason. Right now they are tied with the Buffalo Sabers and 2 points behind the Detroit Red Wings, but both franchises have a big advantage in the first tie-breaker (regulation wins) so they will most likely need to gain more points after 82 games to take them out of the seeding. The good news for the Habs is that they have a seven-point lead over the teams that could knock them out of the playoffs entirely (CLM, TOR and WSH), although the Boston Bruins could drop them to 8th place as they are only 2 points behind.
If the True Northers want to come back from a 4.5-game deficit to make the postseason…all the remaining games will be extremely important. At this moment, Money puck has those odds at 6.4%, which is better than only six other franchises. So highly unlikely, but mathematically possible.
Here’s how the two clubs’ annual stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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Since I already broke down many of the stats before posting the charts above, I won’t go into much more detail about the numbers. Neither club has received top quality goaltending this year and that could be a major problem for the Canadiens in the playoffs.
Another area of concern for the Habs is their 5-on-5 play in 2025-2026, as they have a 48.81% expected goals rating, which is good for 22nd best in the NHL. The stats will tell you that this category is the best indicator of eventual playoff success… so not a good sign for Montreal. By the way, the bottom feeding Jets rank 27th in the league at 46.79%, not that far off from tonight’s opponent.
The pre-game skate was supposed to take place early, but no information is available Illegal bend anyway, so for now we’ll rely on the lineup projections via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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MONTREAL CANADIENS LINE
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Time is running out, so if you’re not ready to move on to another website…maybe take another look at the stats and lineups? I’ll try to see if there’s any lineup news today around noon and will either update this article or post a comment below.
Nice day!! The cold streak is finally over in the Peg!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all):
Expected goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
An early start to tonight’s game at the CLC means I should be able to update the data after the game by 10pm Central, so if you’re interested, come back and check that out.
During the three-week Olympic break, I’ll do an article on the ice hockey tournament so we have room to comment as it plays out. I hope to do a few other articles as well, including a deep dive into the potential of OHL top 5 scorer Kieron Walton might have at the NHL level, as well as an update on how all the other players have done this season. If you have any other topics you would like me to consider… feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section.
#Montreal #Canadiens #Winnipeg #Jets