The Winnipeg Jets have 29 games left in the regular season… so this nightmare of a season is far from over at this point. Luckily, we fans get a little break from watching our hockey team struggle, as the Olympics will shut down the NHL for three weeks. Before then, there are only games left against the Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens. Once the league starts back up, there are only 10 days left before the trade deadline, so GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have to make the decision whether the True North franchise will sell assets in an effort to set the Jets up for a better season next year.
Going into Saturday’s action, Winnipeg ranks 30th in team points… but if you consider a winning percentage like Tankathon used in their mock lottery simulations, the Jets are ranked 28th (5th best odds). That would give them the following odds in the upcoming Entry Draft lottery:
1st: 8.8% / 2nd: 8.9% / 3rd: 0.3% / 4th: 0% / 5th: 26.2% / 6th: 43.2% / 7th: 12.7%
So let’s use the site’s lottery simulator again to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these odds:
- Winnipeg Jets (8.8% chance)
- Devils from New Jersey (3.9% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (56.6% chance)
- Calgary flames (40.1% chance)
- St. Louis blues (28.2% chance)
- New York Rangers (19.2% chance)
This tryout turned out well for the Jets, as our club wins the big prize and thus gets the opportunity to select the first prospect in the Entry Draft. As we’ve seen, there’s almost always one low club that moves up the board and this time it was the Devils who jumped from 10th to 2nd.
I believe this is the sixth time I’ve run this mock simulation based on where Winnipeg stood in the standings and so far the last place Vancouver Canucks have only taken the first overall pick once, while the Jets have been very lucky in two of those. The True Northers also finished in the 6th selection twice, while achieving 3rd and 5th place once.
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We move on to today’s matinee as the Winnipeg Jets and Florida Panthers face off at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. Both teams will be in action coming off losing streaks after the Manitobans were outclassed by the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday and the Cats lost to the St. Louis Blues the same night, extending their deficit to two games.
These defeats come at bad times for two clubs in the hunt for wildcard spots and they will have to catch up with similar deficits in the latter part of the regular season. Despite being tied with the 15th best record in the NHL, the Panthers are only 2 points closer to a playoff spot than the Jets, needing 8 and 10 points respectively to move into a tie for the final wild card spot. That shows how unbalanced the Eastern & Western Conferences are in 2025-2026, with the East having only one team with fewer than 57 points, while the West can put 6 franchises in that category.
Winnipeg (21-25-7) has scored the 23rd most goals this season (154), while limiting the opposition enough to be tied for the 13th fewest goals against (165). Florida (28-22-3) owns the 19th highest scoring club (164) this year and have also struggled defensively by allowing the 21st fewest goals (174).
Injuries have played a major role in both clubs’ struggles, as the Jets have gone without Dylan Samberg, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, Connor Hellebuyck& Neal Pionk Long this year, while the Cats have seen star players Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk& Alexander Barkov missing large chunks of playing time.
To continue our look at the numbers… here’s how the two clubs’ annual stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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The numbers above don’t seem to reflect what should be expected from the defending Stanley Cup champions and the defending President’s Trophy winners… but that’s the arbitrariness of sports. With Tkachuk already back in the lineup and Barkov starting to skate for a possible late-season return, fans in Florida will be much more optimistic that they can claim a playoff spot to give their team a chance to win three Cups in a row. Hopes that Winnipeg will turn things around this year have long since left the frigid province of Manitoba to make way for dreams of a high draft pick in June, which is why I conduct a mock lottery draw every time I write a new article.
No morning skating due to the early start time (3:00 PM Central), so here are the lineup projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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The FLORIDA Panthers line up
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It appears the Jets will opt to sit out Tanner Pearson and bring a press box regularly Gustav Nyquist for today’s match. Coach Scott Arniel also reshuffled the forwards during practice yesterday, swapping the 2nd and 3rd line centers in what will likely be a futile attempt to establish consistent secondary scoring.
Looks like Florida will get a bit of a boost as an uber-plague Brad Marchand is expected to return after missing a few games, although the other striker dealing with a day-to-day injury doesn’t seem ready yet. Anton Lundell should be in the press box for another game.
Winnipeg was led by Mark Scheifele (64 pts), Kyle Connor (61), & Josh Morrissey (46) this season and Florida have Sam Reinhart (52 pts), Brad Marchand (50), & Sam Bennett (42). The biggest difference between the teams is in the secondary scoring, with the Panthers having 12 players with at least 20 points and the True Northers being limited to just 5 (two more players with 19).
That’s about all I have time for because I have to run some errands and then get ready for the Manitoba Moose game at 2 p.m. Winnipeg’s minor league affiliate is ranked 3rd in the Central Division and will play a 2-game weekend set against the 6th-place Rockford IceHogs, so a sweep could allow them to challenge the Chicago Wolves for 2nd place in the division (and home ice advantage in the 2nd-3rd playoff series).
Elk soft Thomas Milic is having a good bounce-back season after having an .877 save percentage last year. The 22-year-old has the 11th best save percentage (0.910%) and goals against average (2.42) in the AHL through 17 starts. The other masked man also plays well Dominic DiVincentiis posting a .903 save percentage in his 21 games. Like their parent club, Manitoba have problems scoring goals and must rely on playing a responsible two-way game to limit the opponent’s chances. They do this quite well and that usually gives the Moose a chance to win most games this season. But it’s also a fine line… meaning that while they rarely string together a bunch of losses, they also rarely string together a bunch of wins (had a 6 game hot run in November).
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 2 Florida Panthers 1
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): FLA 2.08 WPG 2.05
Expected goals (5on5): WPG 1.84 FLA 0.82
Three of the four front lines performed well in the xG battle at even strength. Somehow Substitutes–Ropes–Niederreiter managed to create no xGs in more than 7 minutes of play.
The Stanley–Schenn the pairing exceeded the Toews’ line by creating zero scoring opportunities in more than 10 minutes of ice time.
Great game of Comrie.
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
The Winnipeg Jets pulled off an upset victory on Saturday afternoon, leaving them 8 points behind the wild card spot. The team is off until Monday when they take on the Dallas Stars.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Florida #Panthers