The Winnipeg Jets have gone 2-1-0 on their road trip thus far and will look to end the trip on a positive note against their division rival, the Dallas Stars. Both Central Division franchises are battling for positioning in the NHL standings, but are in very different situations. The Texans are having another good season, but the dominance of the Colorado Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild is continuing…Quinn Hughes acquisition sees the Stars scrap for 2nd place and home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. While the True Northers have a tough long road ahead of them if they want to push their way into postseason contention, they need to get 9 points over the Los Angeles Kings & Utah Mammoth to move into a three-way tie for the final wild card spot.
With 51 points in 53 games, Winnipeg maintains the 27th worst record in the NHL, giving them the next opportunity in the upcoming lottery (via Tankathon):
So let’s use Tankathons once again a lottery simulator to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these odds:
- New York Rangers (11.7% chance)
- Calgary flames (9.6% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (58.1% chance)
- St. Louis blues (40.4% chance)
- Chicago Blackhawks (25.6% chance)
- Winnipeg Jets (35.7% chance)
Once again, the last place Vancouver Canucks were not rewarded with the 1st overall selection as the 3rd place NY Rangers and 4th place Calgary Flames moved up 2 spots each. That left the remaining clubs behind the lucky teams based on their season’s records, leaving the Winnipeg Jets with the sixth pick. While that selection is very high in the draft, it will still likely result in the top 4 forwards coming off the board before GM Kevin Cheveldayoff gets his chance. They let the Jets go with 6’2″ RD Chase Reid, who scouts project as an eventual top-pairing defenseman.
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Okay, enough looking forward to the end of June, it’s time to get back to today’s game (7:30 PM Central) between the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars. The two clubs clashed in the second round of the play-offs last season, but it seems unlikely at this point that the True Northers will get a chance at redemption this year. With a difference of 22 points in the standings, the teams are in very different situations.
Dallas (32-14-9) is currently 1 point behind the 2nd place Minnesota Wild in the Central Division, while the Colorado Avalanche are 7 or 8 points ahead of both. Comfortably in a playoff position, the Stars will employ the 9th highest scoring offense (184GF) and the third stingiest defense (153 GE) to jockey for position through the remainder of the regular season.
Winnipeg (22-25-7) is 6th in the Central Division, 5 points behind the 5th place Nashville Predators and 9 points behind the 4th place Utah Mammoth, who are currently tied for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. The Jets defense has been good this season with the 13th fewest goals against (166 GE), but their struggles are reflected in their offense, which ranks 23rd least efficient (156GF).
Both franchises are coming into action with a win in their recent memories, but the Stars are in a four-game stretch while the Jets are coming off a 2-1 victory over the Florida Panthers. Let’s look further at the numbers… here’s how the two clubs’ stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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The team stats certainly show why Dallas has been much better this season, especially in terms of goals for, goals against, and power play conversion rates. Winnipeg couldn’t handle the Stars’ PP in the playoffs last year and they would be wise to avoid dealing with their 30% scoring rate tonight as much as possible.
Neither potential starter for Team USA has played at their normal level, such as Connor Hellebuyck With +7.8 goals saved above expectations, he ranks 17th in the NHL and Jake Oettinger +1.5 GSAE is tied for 35th in the NHL. It’s too early to be sure as the morning skates haven’t happened yet, but it looks like the two will face off tonight at the American Airlines Center as neither of them were dressed for their team’s latest outing. For now, we’re relying on the lineup projections via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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DALLAS STAR LINEUP
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Other than tinkering with the bottom of their defensive combinations, I don’t think the Dallas Stars will have to do too much to prepare for a playoff run. Maybe another scorer up front would help them compete better with the Avs… but they look pretty dangerous on their own.
No word on whether Gustav Nyquist will dress for a second straight game… he didn’t look out of place to me, so I think he should get a chance. Really don’t understand why Chevy hasn’t traded him yet unless there is absolutely no demand for the aging Swede.
Once a star defender for the Manitoba Moose, Kyle Capobianco will face his former team while he is on the other side Vladislav Namestnikov will play a franchise he spent a very short time with (15 games).
That’s all I have time for today… I hope you enjoyed reading it. Nice day!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all):
Expected goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
I’ll have to play it by ear when I update the article with the post-game information due to the late start. My work is hectic right now as we’re doing everything we can to get all the 2025 data processed before the annual reports come out… so I can get started right after the game ends instead of waiting for MoneyPuck to finalize the game data.
But February is here!!! Living in Winnipeg, I always compared this month to Wednesday in a typical work week when it comes to Manitoba winters. The grinding is already halfway done and that makes dealing with the cold temperatures easier until spring arrives.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Dallas #Stars