The Winnipeg Jets started their road trip with a win in New Jersey, but the competition will get tougher on the second stop when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning. True North’s win didn’t help our club gain ground in the wild card race, as the San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings and Seattle Kraken all won on Tuesday as well. That’s why the Jets ranked fourth in NHL team points percentage until the New York Rangers dropped another game last night, leaving Winnipeg with lottery odds at 28th before the action gets underway on Thursday.
According to Tankathonwould give our team the following odds if the lottery draw were to take place this morning:
1st: 8.8% / 2nd: 8.9% / 3rd: 0.3% / 4th: 0% / 5th: 26.2% / 6th: 43.2% / 7th: 12.7%
Using the site’s lottery simulator, see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out in this scenario:
- Calgary flames (11.9% chance)
- Columbus blue jackets (5.3% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (54.4% chance)
- St. Louis blues (40.2% chance)
- New York Rangers (44.5% chance)
- Winnipeg Jets (43.2% chance)
The Flames jumped up from third place to take first overall in this mock, while the Blue Jackets went all the way from #12 to #2 to take one of the top contenders. The rest played out with the franchises earning the spot they had the highest odds for. Interestingly enough, this mock draft saw Winnipeg take 6’3″ LD Albert Smits over 6’2″ center Caleb Malhotra…..not the decision I hope from GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would do with those options.
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Enough looking ahead to the summer, let’s get back to the game that will take place tonight at the Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. Two franchises with extremely different stories heading into the 2025-26 campaign, with the Lightning having the NHL’s second-best record while the Jets have the fourth-worst point total.
Tampa (33-14-4) have been excellent over the past month, with a 15-1-1 record since December 20. That hot streak included an 11-game winning streak, which is essentially Winnipeg’s longest losing skid this year. The Lightning are one of the hardest teams to score, with their great goaltending from the starter Andrei Vasilevskiy helping them to allow the second fewest goals conceded (130). Offensively, the Floridians are firing on all cylinders, as their 179 goals ranked sixth in the NHL.
Winnipeg (21-24-7) have had a chance to win most of their recent games, yet have only managed a 6-6-3 record over their last 15, leaving them near the bottom of the NHL. Defensively, the Jets remain in the middle of the pack (13th with 161 GA), but their effectiveness in scoring goals continues to hurt them (tied for 23rd place with 153 GF).
To continue our look at the numbers… here’s how the two clubs’ annual stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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Tampa has a half-goal lead over Winnipeg in goals scored and allowed, and has also seen better play from the goaltenders and special teams… so the 21-point difference between the two clubs in the standings is fairly easy to understand. The Bolts look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season, but are still battling the Detroit Red Wings for first place in the Atlantic Division. Luckily for them, they have a 1-point plus 3-game lead over the Wings, so their main competition could be the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot in the East (TB up one point with a match in hand).
The Jets, on the other hand, need to win four games over their competition to move into a four-way tie for the Western Conference’s final wild-card spot. That makes a playoff appearance highly unlikely, as Winnipeg would have to win more than 65% of their games while hoping Los Angeles, Seattle and San Jose would play just .500 in their final 30 games. If the True Northers do make a move, it seems very likely that it will result in them overtaking the Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators, but not advancing beyond the wild card spot. That’s kind of the worst-case scenario for any fan of the Manitoban franchise. Still no playoff action to watch and a higher chance of a worse draft position. Money puck currently Winnipeg has a 6.7% chance of making the postseason, the 7th worst odds in the league.
I’m doing this very early, so now there’s still news, but I don’t think the Jets will make any changes, so here are the lineup projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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TAMPA BAY Lightning lineup
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I noticed the former Winnipeg Jets prospect Simon Lundmark made his NHL debut with Tampa Bay a few days ago, but has since been reassigned to their minor league club (5 points in 22 grams with Syracuse Crunch). The only other connection I can think of is (and maybe i’m wrong), but I believe Vladislav Namestnikov once played for the Lightning.
Another busy day at work…so I’ll close with the top 4 scorers from Tampa & Winnipeg:
WPG: Mark Scheifele (63 pts), Kyle Connor (60), Gabriel Vilardi (46), and Josh Morrissey (42)
TB: Nikita Kucherov (80 pts), Jake Guntzel (55), Brandon Hagel (49), & Darren Raddysh (44)
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all):
Expected goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
Post-match data should be added around 10pm Central. Have a great day and I’m here tonight to talk about the game, so feel free to join me if your evening is as boring as mine.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Tampa #Bay #Lightning