With the one point the Winnipeg Jets picked up against Florida, the team had moved back six points from the last wild card spot in the Western Conference. Still, the NHL’s action on Friday night left quite a few other franchises in the race with wins, so they’ll enter today’s game four full games back against the Detroit Red Wings (8 pts) of the play-off battle.
The True Northers currently have the fourth worst record in the league based on points earned, but rise to fifth place when you look at points percentage, which happens to be the method our friends use Tankathon used for their draft odds and mock lottery mode. Therefore, Winnipeg currently has an 8.5% chance of 1st overall, 8.6% of 2nd, a measly 0.3% chance of 3rd, no chance of 4th, 24.5% chance of 5th, the highest chance of finishing 6th (44%), and the furthest they can drop is the 7th (14.2%).
Once again the mock lottery, here is how the top 7 finished:
- Chicago Blackhawks (7.5% chance)
- New York Rangers (9.5% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (55.7% chance)
- St. Louis blues (41.7% chance)
- Calgary flames (29.8% chance)
- Winnipeg Jets (44% chance)
- Nashville Predators (44.4% chance)
This run didn’t go great for the Jets, as they ended up getting the pick they had the highest odds of earning, which likely allowed the top 4 forwards to come off the board before GM. Kevin Cheveldayoff will have a chance to add to Winnipeg’s prospect pool. Both the Hawks and Rangers made significant jumps, with Chicago moving from 6th to 1st and New York from 4th to 2nd. Disappointed by that result, I pressed the SIM LOTERY button again and the True North franchise earned the opportunity to draft the No. 2 prospect in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft. Unfortunately there won’t be any repeats when Gary Bettman officially makes the draw.
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We continue with Saturday’s hockey action as the high-flying Detroit Red Wings visit frigid Manitoba for a battle against the hometown Winnipeg Jets. This will be the last game in the Peg before the club heads out on a four-game road trip that will see them face the New Jersey Devils, the Tampa Bay Lightning, a rematch against the Florida Panthers and a divisional matchup against the Dallas Stars. Just as the Jets look to return to postseason contention, the NHL schedule is throwing tough opponents their way.
Detroit and Winnipeg have seen their fortunes reverse in 2025-2026, with the young Wings on the verge of ending nine straight seasons without a playoff appearance, while the Jets have fallen from President’s Trophy winners to holders of one of the worst records in the NHL. On completely opposite sides of the standings, the Michigan club sits with the fourth-best record as they challenge Tampa Bay for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the Manitobans wallow with the fourth-worst point total in the league.
With that big a difference between the teams, you would think there would be a big difference between their stats this year…but that really hasn’t been the case. Here’s how the two clubs’ annual stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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Detroit is doing very well in the win-loss column, despite their offensive and defensive numbers being in the middle of the league. With 162 goals for (G.F) and 158 goals against (GO), the Wings rank 16th and 17th in those categories, respectively. The data actually gets a little worse when you focus on 5-on-5 play, with the NHL’s 19th best expected goals percentage (48.91% xGs) and the 24th best actual goals percentage (47.45% AGs).
Winnipeg’s stats aren’t that different in comparison, with their 148 GF (T-21st) and 153GA (T-12e) near the middle of the NHL. At even strength, the Jets xG numbers are far from impressive (27th with 46.74%), but the aG% is much better (15th with 50.73%). That’s the difference between the league’s 7th best shooting percentage at 5-on-5 for the True Northers (10.36%) and the Red Wings’ 29th-ranked sniper capabilities (8.12%).
The goaltenders have also put up similar statistics this season, as the takeover of John Gibson has paid off for the Michigan club.
From what I could dig up, the Jets aren’t expected to make any changes, so here are the lineup projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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DETROIT RED WINGS ALIGN
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Winnipeg has gone 5-2-3 in its past ten games and Detroit has been hot with a 7-2-1 record. Both clubs suffered losses in extra time and will therefore be hungry to get the full 2 points tonight.
Other storylines include former teammates Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kane As they retire, former Jets return to Manitoba Andreas Kop, Mason Appleton& Ben Chiarotand a bunch of Winnipeg players with ties to Michigan, like Connor Hellebuyck & Kyle Connor.
The Manitoba Moose came close to beating the Wings’ farm team last night, but laziness on the power play allowed the Grand Rapids Griffins to score a short-handed marker for a 2-1 victory. The two small team members will face off again on Sunday as the Moose will look to hand them just their fourth regular season loss this year.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all):
Expected goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
Since it’s Saturday, there shouldn’t be any issues if I add all the post-game data to this article before 10:00 PM Central. I hope you all have a great weekend!!
#Detroit #Red #Wings #Winnipeg #Jets