The Winnipeg Jets let a five-game winning streak slip through their hands on Saturday as they allowed the Toronto Maple Leafs to storm back from a two-goal deficit to take an overtime victory. That has unfortunately become a common theme for the True North franchise in the 2025-2026 NHL campaign, resulting in our hockey team being ranked second to last in the league.
As a result, some Jets fans have turned their attention to the upcoming draft, hoping that Winnipeg can select a game-changing player to boost the future of the franchise. With tempting prospects such as Gavin McKenna & Ivar Stenberg graces the top of most fake drafts…who can blame them? So, with those people in mind, I’ve decided to add a new section to our preview that will provide an ongoing look at GM’s chances. Kevin Cheveldayoff will have the opportunity to place someone in the top 5. Via the website Tankathonwe can follow the rest of the season as the Jets’ chances rise and fall.
Based on the current standings of the NHL, the chart above shows the odds each of these franchises have in the upcoming draft lottery. You will notice that whoever finishes with the worst record in the league cannot progress beyond the 3rd overall selection, while the clubs in second and third place can drop as low as 4th and 5th respectively. Furthermore, only the worst 11 teams have a chance at the first overall selection and only the worst 13 teams can break into the top 3.
It’s interesting to see that, based on probability alone, a team that finishes in the bottom six spots is likely to draft later than their pre-lottery rankings would suggest. For example, the team in last place is most likely to be third in the overall standings (55.7%) while the 2nd and 3rd worst clubs are expected to appear in 4th place most often (41.7% and 39.7% respectively). Franchises that finish 7th through 16th are statistically most likely to end up in the exact same position. That makes it even more amazing that a team like the NY Islanders came out of this bracket last year and took the first overall pick.
When it comes to Winnipeg, they currently have a 13.5% chance at first overall, a 14.4% chance at the second pick, 30.7% odds for the third selection, and 41.7% of the time they will end up in fourth place. Since Tankathon also has the ability to run a Draft Lottery simulation. I thought I would also run this once a day to see how the top 5 stack up based on that day’s rankings. My first run on this showed that things rarely work out based on the pre-lottery rankings, as here’s how the top 5 played out:
- Winnipeg Jets (13.5% chance)
- Anaheim Ducks (3.2% chance)
- Vancouver Canucks (55.7% chance)
- Chicago Blackhawks (39.7% chance)
- St. Louis blues (44.6% chance)
Well, a Jets win in the lottery is a great way to start this section, but I’m not sure Winnipeg will maintain the second-best odds at the top pick as the season progresses. Did you know that the True Northers have only lost one match by more than one goal since December 11? And that’s pretty amazing considering the Jets suffered 12 losses during that span. What I’m trying to allude to with this is that our hockey team played in each of those 18 games, but only won six. That seems like an unsustainable run of bad luck to me, so I would expect that if Winnipeg continues to play like they used to, the wins should come a bit more often. We’ll continue to track that in upcoming preview articles, but now we have to move on to Monday’s match.
*****
Tonight’s game between the Winnipeg Jets (19-22-6) and the Chicago Blackhawks (19-22-7) features clubs with nearly identical records as they battle for the Central Division cellar with the St. Louis Blues. It could be an emotional affair at the United Center as a longtime Hawks star Jonathan Toews will perform there for the first time in a jersey that does not belong to his hometown club. The veteran center suited up for 1,067 games with Chicago, scoring 372 goals and 883 points en route to a pair of championship rings.
Just past the midpoint of the regular season, the Jets have scored the 21st most goals in the NHL (144) while the Blackhawks are ranked 25th (133). On the other side of the game, Winnipeg has allowed the 14th fewest goals (148) against while Chicago has the 21st fewest (154). Both franchises have dealt with key injuries this season, just as the Hawks have had young stars Connor Bedard & Frank Nazar out of the lineup, while the Jets have seen it Connor Hellebuyck, Dylan Samberg& Cole Perfetti miss significant time.
Today’s match at the Canada Life Center kicks off at 7:30pm Central and here’s how the two clubs’ stats compare so far, via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
*****
For two of the worst teams in the NHL this year, the stats are unsurprisingly similar in most categories. Both Winnipeg and Chicago allow more than three goals per game, are outshot by their opponents and take too many penalties. The Jets are averaging at least three goals per game, but the Blackhawks have witnessed better special teams play thus far. The goaltending was also pretty even, which means that isn’t the case either Spencer Knight is having a great season or Connor Hellebuyck not playing up to his normal standards. Possibly a mix of both?
With the attacking chances the True Northers have created of late and the Hawks’ tendency to lose the battle against expected goals (44.73% at 5 on 5 for 32nd in the NHL), I think the odds of a win in Winnipeg upon Toews’ return to Illinois are better than normal. From reports I’ve read, he sounds like Chicago’s promising rookie Frank Nazar is close to a return, but it doesn’t look like it will come until Thursday, so his team will be without his 21 points in 33 games. That would have been a big boost for the home club, but Connor Bedard It is known that he performs well against our club. So maybe my feeling is wrong?
Since I’m writing this earlier than usual and the pre-game skate isn’t until 11:30 a.m., we’ll have to rely on PuckPedias align projections at this point:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
*****
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS LINEUP
*****
Since I don’t think any of Winnipeg’s injured defensemen are set to return, that will be the case Elias Salomonsson getting a 2nd match in a row or a fellow rookie Isaac Philips fell in. The young Swede looked good against the Leafs, but being often paired with an underperforming 2nd line led to ugly advanced stats. Still, I think the coaching staff at least wants to see Phillips while he’s at the big club, so I wouldn’t count on him filling in for Salomonsson or Lucas Schenn.
Chicago began Arvid Soderblom in their last outing, so I expected the Jets to concede Spencer Knight this evening. Despite missing thirteen games this year, Connor Bedard has certainly been impressive when he was on the ice (47 points in 35 grams). That rate of 1.34 points/gram is even better than fellow Team Canada Mark Scheifele 1.23 points/g.
That should be all the thoughts about tonight’s match currently in my head… so time to sign off. Should you wrap up to brave the cold (-22C or -7.6F) and re-shovel after the crews had done my back job.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
*****
AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
*****
Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all):
Expected goals (5on5):
*****
BOJA’S THOUGHTS AFTER THE GAME:
With a slightly later start than normal on a weekday, there’s no guarantee I’ll be up late enough to update the data after the race. Even though I’m free today, maybe an afternoon nap will allow me to wait until MoneyPuck updates the stats. So I’ll have it late tonight or around 8am tomorrow morning.
I already told you that I predict a win in Winnipeg tonight that would vault the Jets over the Blackhawks in the standings. How do you see the situation compared to Chicago?
Please also let me know if you will be following the lottery section for the rest of the year? Should updates be made every game or maybe just once a week?
#Winnipeg #Jets #Chicago #Blackhawks