Well, it’s official. With their recent loss to the Avs, the Winnipeg Jets are now on track to have their worst season since NHL hockey returned to the province of Manitoba in 2011. Before Sunday’s action, the True Northers are looking at a 77-point season, which would be slightly worse than the Jets’ 2015-16 season.78 pts). That resulted in Winnipeg getting their first top 5 draft pick from their second reincarnation in the next Entry Draft.
But despite that, the Jets are just five points behind the Western Conference’s final wild card spot with two games remaining against the San Jose Sharks. So the club’s post-season hopes haven’t been completely dashed and they’ve been playing better hockey lately (lost the last 3 games by 1 goal). One of those teams that Winnipeg (15-17-2) competing for a spot in the playoffs is the Utah Mammoth (17-17-3), who they will clash with tonight at 6pm Central.
Since there are so many negatives to focus on this year, I chose to look for the positives from the Jets season so far, to give us a little hope to hold on to:
- Both Mark Scheifele & Kyle Connor are doing very well offensively, despite the chaos around them. The two forwards have the 11th most points in the league and are on their way to a career-high of 100 points as they look to post back-to-back point-per-game campaigns. Now, some may think that because of Winnipeg’s scoring woes, the duo will get more playing time this year and that has helped them improve their stats. Yet the reality is that only 2 players with more points have averaged less ice time than Scheif & KFC (Robertson & Rantanen of the stars).
- The other most common frontline forward is also having a career season, such as Gabriel Vilardi is on pace for a 72-point campaign, which would easily surpass his previous record of 61. Gabe is also looking to set a new career high in goals this year, as the winger is on pace for 38 (previous best 27). Currently ranked 50th most points, but the biggest advantage gained in the PLD trade is paying off for Winnipeg.
- Then there is the goalkeeper Connor Hellebuyckwho, despite missing three weeks due to injury, still ranks 4th in the NHL for goals saved above expectations. His +16.78 rating this year would put him on pace to post a whopping +58.7 if he played the same number of regular season games as last year. To put that in context, Bucky had ratings of +39.59 and +33.12 in his last two Vezina-winning campaigns. The starter’s savings rate of 0.916% is slightly lower than expected (three consecutive seasons above 0.920%), but that’s probably more a reflection of the team playing for him.
- Josh Morrissey remains one of the league’s better defenders when it comes to scoring points, as he is on pace for another 60+ point campaign (67.5). That would give the defenseman four straight seasons with more than 60 points.
- Honorable mentions for guys like Morgan Barron, Dylan Samberg& Logan Stanley. De Beer has used his speed and size to earn some extra looks from the coaching staff, which he grabbed with both hands while on pace for a 30-point campaign and setting a new career high (previous best 21 pts). His six goals so far also puts him on pace to score around 16 this year, which would be another personal best. Sammie had the start of his season postponed due to an injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from being the best Jets defenseman on his home turf. Once again Dylan is above 50% expected goals during 5v5 play…which no one else does Dylan De Melo has done in 2025-2026. After all, Big Stan had scored five goals in five NHL seasons before this year… and now Logan has already put six in net for Winnipeg in less than half a season. Both his 14-goal pace and his 29-point pace would be career bests… but the hulking d-man still has problems in his own zone (43.2% On Ice Expected Goals at 5-on-5 for the Jets’ 5th best defenseman).
- In the minors, potential bright spots include a pair of Manitoba Moose goaltenders who rank among the top 20 AHL goaltenders in both save percentage and goals-to-average. Dominic DiVincentiis (0.912%/2.59 GAA) And Thomas Milic (0.917%/2.25 GAA) have given the Jets’ low-scoring minor league affiliate a good chance to make the playoffs, as they sit comfortably in 3rd place in the Central.
- Finally, Winnipeg’s best-looking non-pro prospect appears to be the future Kieron Walton. The big 6’6″ skater posted a 92-point campaign in 66 games (1.39 points/g) with the Sudbury Wolves after being drafted by the Jets and has built on that in 2025-2026. Despite his OHL club being near the bottom of the league, Walton excelled with an impressive 48 points in 28 games (1.71) and that puts him on par with the most points in the junior competition. Notably, the rest of his scoring league is on the better OHL teams and the rumor mill has indicated that the big forward could be on the move as any team with championship aspirations would love to add his offense. Flirting at a 50-goal pace with the Wolves, the 19-year-old could add some much-needed goals to Winnipeg or Manitoba next year.
Enough of trying to pump up the True North fan base with the few bright spots in this nightmare season…time to get back to today’s game. Let’s start by looking at Winnipeg and Utah’s seasons so far via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
*****
Statistically, most of the team stats for Winnipeg and Utah are similar, although the Jets have the better power play and the Mammoth have been stronger when they lose a player. Not many teams can have a goaltending advantage against the True North franchise when Hellebuyck is available and today’s game is no exception.
Utah recently took a huge hit as a star player Logan Cooley was injured and with him not expected to return until early February, the Mammoth will have to try to claw their way into a wildcard spot without him.
The True Northers will not be doing a pre-game skate today, but we saw the coaching staff make some changes to the forward lines in practice yesterday. A move that I applaud, but which could cause a lot of grief for other fans, head coach Scott Arniel was bitten by a snake Gustav Nyquist up to the top line with Mark Scheifele & Kyle Connor. Adding a defensively responsible winger to that duo seems like a good idea to me and hopefully it will unlock the attacking capabilities that the Swede has shown in the past. That allowed the Jets to shuffle around the bottom nine forwards in a desperate hope for consistent secondary scoring. Here’s how PuckPedia predicts the line-up for tonight’s match…what do you think of the changes? Will they work? Which units will win the xG battle?
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
*****
UTAH MAMMOTH LINE
*****
There’s almost nothing to say… but did note that Winnipeg has 14 players in their 30s compared to Utah’s 5. More specifically, if you removed the 4th attacker and 3rd defense combination, the Mammoth would only have 1. The Jets on the other hand would still be at 9.
Youth versus experience. That hasn’t worked out so well for our club this season… but we hope so. Time to grab some lunch and do some things around the house before the Elk Game starts at 2:00 PM.
See you all here tonight for the game……as the saying goes…misery loves company!!
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
*****
AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Utah Mammoth 4 Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
*****
Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): UTH 3.16 WPG 2.03
Expected goals (5on5): WPG 1.41 UTH 1.34
Seven different line combinations with a total duration of more than 2 minutes. Three of them won the xG battle, although two of them were different versions of the Scheifele–Connor line.
The actual goals conceded were scattered, although only two of the combinations were in our list above. The original 1st line with Nyquist allowed, just like the 7th unit on our list. The last GM was against Niederreiter, Ropes& Nyquist. Winnipeg’s two goals at 5-on-5 came from the top 2 lines in the image above.
Rough for the Stanley–Miller duo in the xG category, plus 2 goals conceded. Morrissey-Samberg gave up the other one while it was still there Samberg–The Melo And Morrissey–Stanley that focused on goals in Winnipeg.
*****
BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
Once again, a bad start for the Winnipeg Jets ultimately cost them a win. This time the club fell behind 3-0 before staging a comeback to tie the match. But Utah was having none of it in overtime, where they scored immediately and dashed the True Northers’ hopes for a pair of points. Our hockey team is now tied with the Vancouver Canucks for the third worst record in the NHL.
Maybe Santa will bring the coaching staff some answers?? Because right now they’re just throwing everything at the wall.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Utah #Mammoth