The Winnipeg Jets (12-10-0) will continue their road trip as they look for a way to end a three-game losing streak without the help of a star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Friday’s opposition has had an excellent start to the 2025-2026 NHL campaign as the Carolina Hurricanes (14-7-2) are tied for the fourth-best record in the league… but they come into action today with a two-game skid of their own.
Before I delve into the Jets-Canes clash, I find it interesting that in a year where the NHL has seen a record number of games requiring extra playing time to determine a winner, our Winnipeg hockey club has only gone to overtime/shootout twice so far. Even though the True Northerners won both, the lack of “losers points‘in their losses so far could gain importance as the playoff race gets closer to the finish line.
The Hurricanes earned a 4-3 win over the Jets about a week ago in Manitoba, now it’s our team’s chance to return the favor to the fans at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh. Both clubs have had problems scoring of late, with Winnipeg scoring just six goals in their last three games, while Carolina has been limited to three red lights in their past two defeats.
The Hurricanes have played very well this season, especially at 5 v 5 where they rank 4th in actual goals percentage (55.67) and 2nd in % expected target (56.86). That means they score pretty much the number of goals they are expected to get based on the level of their play. The Jets, on the other hand, haven’t been as successful at even strength, ranking tied for 17th in true goal percentage (50) and even worse in expected goals percentage as they rank 27th (46.76).
Let’s continue our look at Winnipeg & Carolina by checking out ESPN‘S team and goaltender comparisons for tonight’s late night game (another 9 p.m. Central start):
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The Hurricanes were the better team at creating offense this year (goals/shots) and their tenacious playing style has limited the number of clubs playing them to around 25 shots per match. If there was a weakness for the North Carolina franchise, it may be in the performance of the special teams, where the PKers are slightly below average and the PP has been disappointing.
The Jets have received better than expected results from their special teams, but their scoring at even strength has only allowed them to break even. This is mainly because the Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor& Gabriel Vilardi trio does most of the heavy lifting.
That reminded me of the Norm MacDonald joke about the short form of the word identification, to paraphrase… okay, the “I” stands for “I” and the “D” means “Identification”…..seems like the “D” is doing the heavy lifting. Definitely not the same without Norm’s delivery, but still funny.
In addition to Bucky being out for Winnipeg, the team will also be without a pair of defensemen on the second pair Neal Pionk and depth defender Haydn Fleury. Carolina will certainly be without a center Jesperi Kotkaniemibut can also be missing forward Jordan Steel & tender Pyotr Kochetkovthat are listed daily.
Here’s how PuckPedia is currently predicting what the lines will look like when play starts at 4 p.m. Central:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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CAROLINA HURRICANES ARE PREPARING
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Looks like a starting goalkeeper Thomas Milic will join a fellow rookie Elias Salomonsson in the starting lineup today. The Manitoba Moose tender has put together a strong performance to start the season, posting a 2.14 goals against average and a .921 save percentage in 9 starts with the AHL franchise. The undersized and acrobatic masked man will be put to the test against a strong attacking club like the Hurricanes.
The training in Winnipeg yesterday was optional, so anything could happen to the forward and defensive units… but it might not be a bad thing for the coach Scott Arniel to allow the bottom 3 units to gain some familiarity with each other. The blender can cause confusion as often as it can cause more offense.
That’s all I have time for this morning… I hope everyone has a great day and see you here for puck drop (or when you get home from work).
Go to Winnipeg!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Carolina Hurricanes 5 Winnipeg Jets 1
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): AUTO 3.41 WPG 1.42
Expected goals (5on5): AUTO 2.34 WPG 1.21
6 different forward lines received more than 3 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time against the Hurricanes… and only one of them ended up winning the xG or shooting battle (Perfetti-Toews alternates). That pretty much tells the story of Winnipeg’s game today. Three of the top four units in Ice Age ultimately allowed a goal against, with only the Pearson Delegates-Perfetti line that keeps Carolina off the scoresheet. Unfortunately from Scheifele strong effort tonight was not reflected in the statistics above, but the battle of the Lowry trio must be very concerning for a club that needs someone other than the top line to play against the opposition’s best.
The d-pairings of 4 different Jets provided more than 6 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time, with the Stanley Miller combination leads with 13 minutes. All three top units eventually conceded a goal, with Winnipeg’s only goal coming on a rare goal Morrissey-Samberg shift, the only time the duo was on the ice together with equal strength. I thought Salomonsson played quite well, despite the above numbers, and he finished with a team-leading 5 blocks against the Canes. Nice to see that the coaches trusted the rookie enough to use him on the penalty kill, where he had the second-most minutes for the Jets.
Apart from that last goal against in “it doesn’t matter” Militia was very impressive in his NHL debut. The young tender kept his club in the match for almost 52 minutes, but in the end the uninspired play of many of his teammates cost him a chance at victory.
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
I haven’t really had time to think about the numbers yet, but it was pretty clear to my old eyes that the Winnipeg Jets had skated into this one. Strong play from young Thomas Milic in net, a penalty kill that got the True Northers through some short-handed situations, and some inspired plays Mark Scheifele will probably be the only really positive signs from today’s performance.
I wonder if anyone can pull the Winnipeg Jets players aside and remind most of them that they had the most successful offensive seasons of their careers last year… when the team committed to playing a responsible 60-yard run. It will benefit them all if they realize that their stats and future contracts will increase if everyone moves in the same direction. The injuries caused extensive damage, but next month without Connor Hellebuyck becomes the “make it or break it” point of the Jets’ 2025-2026 campaign. Right now, they’re not giving us fans much reason to hope… but there will be no rest as Winnipeg travels to Tennessee to take on the Predators tomorrow.
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