Galaxy Research Cuts Bitcoin (BTC) 2025 Target to $120,000 Amid Market Turmoil

According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin’s three-year bull market remains structurally intact if ~$100,000 holds.

The crypto market continues to navigate turbulent conditions, following the devastating crash on October 10, which was perhaps one of the most severe and fastest liquidation events. The sudden crash caused massive liquidation volumes across the market, leading to back-to-back liquidations that ripped through leveraged positions within hours.

The fallout from these liquidations has contributed to broader market weakness, with many assets struggling to regain momentum. As a result of the market chaos, Bitcoin’s target has been adjusted downwards.

Bitcoin target lowered

Galaxy research marked in a recent tweet that 72 of the top 100 crypto assets by market cap are currently trading at least 50% below their previous all-time highs. Macro factors have exacerbated these market challenges. According to the platform, this year was marked by significant whale distribution, rotation to competing narratives such as AI, gold and stablecoins, and underperformance among BTC-focused treasury firms.

As a result, Galaxy Research stated that it has now revised its 2025 target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000. However, it explained that Bitcoin has entered a new phase, adding that the asset is in its “maturity era” – where institutional absorption, passive flows and lower volatility dominate.

If Bitcoin can maintain the ~$100,000 level, Galaxy Research says the bull market will remain structurally intact over nearly three years, even though the pace of future gains may be slower.

“Still, we think approaching previous all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for bulls in the near term.”

Basic construction phase in full swing

Coinbase institutional viewed October’s crypto sell-off as a potential market reset rather than a cycle top. In its recent insights, the platform said excess debt has been cleared, fundamentals remain solid and institutional investors are gradually returning.

It also found that smart capital is focusing on EVM chains, real-world assets (RWAs) and return protocols, reflecting selective re-risk rather than a withdrawal. While liquidity shortages persist and macro uncertainty persists, structural demand is increasing. The company sees this as a “base building phase” that could lay the foundation for the next upward movement in the crypto market.

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Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz added perspective on investor behavior, attributing the slowdown to long-term holders rebalancing their portfolios after an extended bull run. He noted that while diversification of large, concentrated positions may temporarily depress prices, it is healthy for the medium and long term.

Novogratz also suggested that cycle highs are likely not yet reached. Looking ahead, he expects that a new Federal Reserve chairman will take a more dovish approach by year’s end, which could provide the narrative needed to support the next long-awaited upward move in crypto prices.