2:20 Cheltenham
TRANSMISSION 17/2 William Hill 8/1 overall – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
HOW JOLY SMOKE 12/1 overall – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
This is a very interesting race and if they are all 100% fit you could make a case for quite a few of these. However, you need to read between the lines and I will give you my analysis on why I am hiring a particular horse before moving on to our two selections.
Starting with Nassalam, who is undoubtedly the target of the Welsh National and wants it bottomless. They will bring his handicap down over the next few runs and that will be in front of the public.
Three Card Brag could go well, but 149 is a high enough handicap. However, he comes across as a bit horsey here and Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy are a dangerous combination.
Hyland has a great chance on his day, but I wonder if they will ruin his mark here now that the Ladbrokes Gold Cup is his target. If he wins here he’ll be in the 150s, while if he loses here his target drops. If the ground dries to good ground tomorrow, it will increase his chances, but still, 11 pounds on his back, the first time he gets up, is not easy.
Manofthepeople likes it near Cheltenham, but you just fancy something different to have a bit more class. Another who will appreciate drying the soil, so keep an eye out in the morning.
Fascile Mode is very talented, but his jump is terrible. If he put it all together he could beat his odds, but I’m not willing to take the risk.
The Short Go is also an interesting horse and he came second in this race last year on a score of 126. He is at 132 this time and is short enough for me. However, he is doing well on the course and Henry De Bromhead may have been targeting this race.
Rock My Way has a chance but is again short enough in the betting but will appreciate this test of endurance.
The two I like to be involved with for different reasons are TRAMSMISSION and HOW JOLY SMOKE.
Starting with TRANSMISSION, this is a horse that loves Cheltenham. He came 2nd at Hyland last October and got 5lb, but this time he gets a stone from that horse. Is it enough to turn the form over??? A stone carries a lot of weight, especially if it comes to the end of a race over 3m 2f.
TRANSMISSION went on to win at the November meeting, was second to Haiti Couleurs at the December meeting, putting weight on that horse, and went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.
His season ended in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, being sent off as 7/2 favourite. He could only finish fifth that day, but I think Patrick Mullins gave him a bad ride and left him plenty to do.
He was dropped after Cheltenham and I think that could be a blessing in disguise. TRANSMISSION is a big horse, a real hunter and now that he is no longer a beginner, this time he will be bigger and stronger.
He lines up with a handicap score of 132, which is well within reach for me.
I expect him to be held up and then go home with a late run. He gets up the hill so well and with 10st 10lb on his back this race is made for him.
Neil Mulholland is keen to feature for Cheltenham and with £52,000 going to the winner, I’m sure TRANSMISSION will be ready to try and capitalize on his mild performance the first time around. E/W.
We tipped HOW JOLY SMOKE last time at Chepstow but he was made a non-runner. That was 2 weeks ago, so another 2 weeks of training would have improved his fitness. If he was ready then, he will be even more ready now and Dan Skelton will need to win £52,000 in prizes this way if he is to challenge Willie Mullins in the Championship. I think he will have HOW JOLY SMOKE ready for this race and like, Transmission, try to take advantage of his mild figure of 129. Harry Skelton takes the ride carrying only 10st 7lb which is a small weight considering some of the weight the others have to carry.
Sandown is a track where he has done well in the past, so Cheltenham is a completely new track, but he has shown some promise at tracks similar to Cheltenham, such as Chepstow, so I don’t think the track will be a problem.
He’s a smooth traveler and I expect Harry Skelton to get plenty of cover and something to work on.
If he gets close enough, with the light weight he has on his back, not many people will make it home better.
I think he is ahead of the handicapper at 129 and now that he is no longer a novice you will see a much better horse this season. E/W.
2:55 Cheltenham
WINNING SMUT 13/2 Bet 365 and William Hill – 0.75 POINTS E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)
GOWEL ROAD 18/1 William Hill, 16/1 overall – 0.5 POINTS E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)
Here are my thoughts…
Long Draw is only 6 years old and deserves to be my favorite. If he could win on numbers he could win with ease, but Olly Murphy has recently said he is targeting the Pertemps Hurdle. He wins here and his score of 138 goes into the 140s. If he loses here and gets into the top 4, his score will drop. Will it be ready and do I want to take the risk for the price? The answer is no, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, I’m happy to take him on.
The two horses I want by my side are WINNING SMUT and GOWEL ROAD. Going back to this race last year, The Wallpark was the winner for Gordon Elliott and Gowel Road came 2nd. Could it be another Gordon Elliott and Nigel Twiston Davies 1st and 2nd??
After last year’s race, The Wallpark was sold to JP McManus and knowing that WINNING SMUT’s owner is Denis Reddan, a small owner, a win with WINNING SMUT here could see the horse sold for decent money. Denis Reddan also bred this horse, so even more reason why getting a Cheltenham winner will be high on the list.
WINNING SMUT is a horse that is only 6 years old, very well bred and related to some decent horses and he is improving every time.
Since joining Gordon Elliott he has run three times, winning twice and coming second. He won very well last time and got a great drive inside from Jack Kennedy.
Gordon Elliott has gotten so much improvement out of his horse in such a short time that he could be on the rise and make his handicap of 133 look small.
I expect the same kind of ride here. The same piece of land from within and then produced to try to win the race. If he wins here he can be locked up until Cheltenham in March and his disability taken care of.
I think he has a great chance with 10lb on his back and it is not often that Gordon Elliott wastes a trip with these types of horses. E/W.
GOWEL ROAD is all about top weight, but it’s capable. He is a horse that also gives everything and often finishes in the Cheltenham area. Last year he ran the course six times, with one win, four second places and then, predictably, was outclassed in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He did get his win in the Relkeel Hurdle and he deserved it after four second places on the bounce.
Last year he came 2nd in this race on a score of 141 so we are 7lb higher this time but we don’t have The Wallpark in the race who proved himself to be a Grade 1 horse coming home third in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
The reason I’m putting on GOWEL ROAD, as I don’t think he is handicapped, is that the Twiston Davies will once again try everything with the horse to get as much prize money as possible. No doubt he will go to the same races this year as last year and give his best to everyone, probably ending up in the Stayers Hurdle and being outclassed.
He’s rated at 148, so if you want to handicap him to try and win the Pertemps in March, he’ll have to go to 140 if he has any chance of winning that race, and that’s a long way to go. Instead, I’m sure he’ll head home here and try to take the mound for the rest and leave it all on the line.
He loves the hill, he finishes so strong and if he jumps into the lead last, I can tell you now that it will be very difficult to pass him.
At 14/1 and considering I think he will be fit and ready, he should put on another good show. I’d rather have a warrior horse by my side than play a guessing game and GOWEL ROAD does that perfectly for a great price. E/W.
Success
JPW Racing tipster
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