Free tips – Saturday November 15 – Free horse racing tips

PATRIOTIK 25/1 Paddy Power, 18/1 overall – 0.5 POINTS E/W

With PATRIOTIK it all comes back to the ground and the weight of the others. Gowel Road has a monster job on this ground with 12 stones. Long Draw is being trained for the Pertemps Hurdle and has qualified, so winning here would increase his handicap margin. He also wants better soil.

Supremely West has also qualified and again a win would leave him handicapped even though he does go on the ground.

The one that stands out and is a huge prize is PATRIOTIK, who will love the terrain and the test that this race will offer.

He has a rating of 123, which is a winnable score considering he beat Kamsinas on soft ground at Doncaster last season with a score of 121. He was also sent off 9/4f that day and he is only 6 years old and can still improve.

His last two runs weren’t great, but they were on good ground and he just can’t keep up when they go faster.

When the ground is slow he loves it and stays in place so well at the end of his races. We saw that at Uttoxeter in March, we saw that at Doncaster when he beat Kamsinas and perhaps his easiest success was at Ffos Las on tough ground.

When the others carrying weight get tired, PATRIOTIK, if they are close enough, will stay up the hill under a lightweight of 10st 5lb.

He’s a huge prize if Evan Williams has him on track and considering he has a run under his belt on this course three weeks ago, you’d expect his fitness to have improved. Since then he has lost 2lb in the handicap and I have seen worse bets than the 25/1 on offer, with next to nothing on his back in terrible ground. E/W.

SENT ANTE POST (November 7)

3.30pm Cheltenham

PANIC ATTACK 12/1 overall – 1 POINT E/W (4 places, 1/4 odds)

I love this race for many reasons. It’s the first major handicap of the season, it’s as competitive as it gets and we have a great record in the race too.

Many of you will remember that this was the race we Ga Law had a few seasons ago to win £308,000 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Over the past 15 years we have also found Baron Alco, Happy Diva and Al Ferof, who made big gains with these 4 winners in the race to SP.

Early entries show Protektorat as the top weight. Last year he ran in the race with a score of 167, so unless he goes for the Betfair Chase the following week and given he missed the Charlie Hall Chase due to the ground, I really think he will run in this race. He is also trained by Dan Skelton, the same as our selection and by running Protektorat this means that PANIC ATTACK only has the 10th on its back.

Currently Jagwar is the heavy favourite, but he is more than adequate on a handicap of 148. He won at Cheltenham in March on a handicap of 139, but an increase in the handicap by 9lb will make things a lot more difficult, that’s for sure.

IL Ridotto is back to reclaim his crown and I can make a strong case for him. Just like last year when I thought he was dangerous, I see him in another big race and if he drifts to 6/1 that day I might take a side bet, but at the current price I just can’t back him. He could and should have come very close given his record in the race, so I wouldn’t want to talk anyone away from him.

Vincenzo has received a lot of support in recent days and this will mainly be due to the form of Sam Thomas who managed to take one for the day. I just don’t think he’s good enough and a little lacking in what he’s achieved.

Coming Up Easy is over from Ireland and you have to respect every Henry De Bromhead horse. The bottom line is that the Irish have a terrible record in this race and the last winner of the race from Ireland was Tranquil Sea in 2009. I can’t think of another winner before that. Yet, from a figure of 142, it will not be easy for the horse.

Which brings me to PANIC ATTACK, trained by Dan Skelton. She has been the target of this race for some time now, ever since she won at Windsor in January. She won so well that day on a handicap of 125 and the pat on the back from Harry Skelton as she was softened told you how well she had won the race.

This is a graph if you see one, one at the highest weight and one at the lowest weight.

Just to remind everyone, today we just saw what Dan Skelton did to an underweight horse in the Haldon Gold Cup. Thistle Ask beat them into submission and used his very lightweight to his advantage.

12/1 over PANIC ATTACK who has only had 4 runs for Skelton, he still needs to get to the bottom of this horse with his training regime and over fences, I think he can get so much more improvement out of the horse. E/W.

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