FPL GW19 Q&A: Semenyo substitutions, Timber for Gabriel + more

Question: Keep or replace Antoine Semenyo? If the latter is the case, who is the best replacement from this list: Declan Rice, Morgan Rogers, Kevin Schade, Anthony Gordon, Dominik Szoboszlai or Bruno Guimaraes?

(via IAWC)

A: Given the transfer rumors going around Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m), it’s safe to say he won’t remain a Bournemouth player beyond Gameweek 21, so it’s only a matter of when, not if. That said, it could give you the opportunity to have four Manchester City players for a short period – although it remains to be seen whether the Ghana international will slot straight into Pep Guardiola’s starting line-up or be given some time to acclimatise.

The above table from the Members Area is sorted by non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) for midfielders and as you can see, neither Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6 million) nor Declan Rice (£7.2m) features in the top 20. So while these two guys are still good FPL choices due to their routes to points and minutes scored, they aren’t the best options if you’re looking for an open play attacking threat.

Kevin Damage (£7.0m) has risen to the top of the table after his hat-trick against Bournemouth, but I think this was a match that suited him, with the Cherries often leaving plenty of space for opposition runners on counter-attacks. He doesn’t really have routes to points other than an open play threat, so I’m put off by that.

A similar argument can be made Morgan Rogers (£7.4m), although he has shown some free-kick skill of late. Rogers’ point distribution is also interesting; he has 92 FPL points this season, and 45 of them have come in just three games. So it’s often feast or famine with Rogers, but the fact that Villa are really in a title race and he has very safe minutes in a busy period, I think he’s a great option.

I prefer the Newcastle midfielders Anthony Gordon (£7.4 million) over Bruno Guimaraes (£7.0 million). The four yellow cards for the latter aren’t much of a deterrent, but I just think Gordon and Lewis Hall‘s (£5.2m) link-up on the left will be crucial for Newcastle and penalties are clearly a big draw for the England international.

So if I were to round up my favorite Sememyo replacements, I think I would go: Gordon, Rogers, and then Rice. With Rice it really depends on whether you want to double Arsenal’s defense or whether you own it Bukayo Saka (£10.3m) already. I still prefer supporting the Gunners backline to their attack.

Q: It’s the same old question, but I think this week is probably the most relevant one lately. When will we introduce someone other than Erling Haaland? Does it make a difference whether you chase or lead?

(via 112kane112)

A: I think it’s too early in the season to think about the chasing/leading argument. The only time I would take it Erling Haaland (£15.1m) if he’s gone to one of the top six/eight sides, but you need someone just as explosive. Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) could be one against his old club this week, but I thought Sunderland looked poor against Leeds United without their AFCON contingent and Then Ballard (£4.7m).

Q: What should you do with your Arsenal defenders when you have the popular combination of Piero Hincapie and Jurrien Timber, especially with Gabriel Magalhaes looking to get fit again?

(via @alexwaterbaby)

Answer: I don’t think so Riccardo Calafiori (£5.7m) will be available against Villa given the Italian’s quick turnaround and late withdrawal against Brighton. So it is reasonable to assume Piero Hincapie (£5.5m) will play at left back, which Mikel Arteta isn’t really showing any confidence in Myles Lewis-Skelly (£5.1 million) this season. In any case, Hincapie is on guard for this week.

Of Jurriën Hout (£6.4m), I still think he is one of the most explosive defenders in the game. If you met him early, like I did, I would still want to keep him long term. He didn’t feature in training for Villa and we didn’t get any pressure from Arteta (that wouldn’t have helped us much anyway), but the rumor is it was a precautionary rest against Brighton. Either way, I think Arteta is going full steam ahead with the reverse fixture result and Villa’s real title credentials.

Question: Everton defense or Newcastle defence?

(via@D1_sizzle)

A: Everton’s defense has put up poor numbers as you can see in the image below. They conceded almost 2.0 xG to Burnley and were fortunate not to concede.

What I look at when analyzing a defense is the ratio between the number of big chances conceded and open attempts on goal. As you can see, Newcastle have only had eight big chances in the last six gameweeks; no party has conceded less. They also rank third for goal attempts allowed in open play, with a 20% ratio of big chances to goal attempts allowed in open play.

Everton conceded 8.55 xG but conceded a whopping 16 big chances, double that of Newcastle. Actual opposing goal attempts in open play are not significantly different, just 40 versus 49, but the Toffees’ ratio of big chances conceded to open play goal attempts awarded is 33%, which is much worse.

It’s not just about team defense, though. What choices do you focus on within these teams? Michael Keane (£4.8m) and James Tarkowski (£5.5m) both seem much more reliable for the DefCon potential and have more threat than someone like Malick Thiaw (£5.0 million).

Leiws Hall is interesting. He was quite attacking against Manchester United, but I’m still a little concerned about his injury problems during a busy period.

With Keane there is also the looming threat of that Jarrad Branthwaite (£5.3m), although his return timeline is a little unclear. Will he oust him and play alongside Tarkowski? Could one of them play as a full-back? We don’t know that for sure yet.

Long story short, I prefer Keane with the DefCon potential and set-piece threat despite Everton being a worse defense. Tarkowski is probably the best choice if money is not an issue.

Question: Sell Jurrien Timber for Gabriel Magalhaes?

(via @James_Co24)

A: As you can see in the table below, Timber’s numbers are still decent, even if they are lower than earlier in the season.

The only situation where I can argue for selling Timber Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m) is if you already have three Arsenal players, for example something like Raya/Timber/Saka or Timber/Saka/Rice. Otherwise I would want Gabriel next to Timber, not instead of.

Q: What are the best Chelsea options to consider? Cole Palmer has been cold for a year, while Joao Pedro will share minutes with Liam Delap.

(via Defcons are for Kinnear)

A: Chelsea’s schedule is super tough now, because there hasn’t been a free midweek for a long time. This is further compounded by the London side’s progress to the Carabao Cup semi-finals, spread over two weekday evenings. Furthermore, due to their poor position in the Champions League, they will likely have to go through a round of play-offs before reaching the last sixteen.

This means that choosing a nailed Chelsea striker in the short term is very difficult, especially during the period Cole Palmer (£10.4m) is building his fitness. I would avoid their attack completely. I think these are the only investment choices available Trevo Chalobah (£5.6 million) and Robert Sanchez (£4.9 million).

Question: Which Manchester United defender should we pick because of United’s excellent short-term performances?

(via FPL Virgo)

A: Personally, I’m not a fan of Manchester United’s defence, even in the short term. The matches against Burnley and Leeds United are away and both promoted teams will assess their chances against the Red Devils. They won’t necessarily be in a deep block and pay them respect. Wolves can score too, as they showed against Arsenal and Liverpool.

The only situation where I find it useful is as a Joe Rodon (£4.0m) replacement; someone you can put on your couch after the next three Game Weeks without worrying about him.

Q: FPL New Year’s resolutions? Huzza, this is by far the best question and will definitely be answered! It will cause much discussion in the Kingdom! Thank you, thank you, thank you!

(via the Knights Template)

A: We often put so much emotion into a game about a game, and it’s something I tell myself every year but rarely succeed: don’t take this game too seriously. Too much of it depends on luck, so be comfortable with the decisions you make and your thought process. FPL and football in general are an escape from the trials and challenges of everyday life, so enjoy the connections you make and the good moments that come along. Blame the bad on variance.

I wish everyone and their families a Happy New Year!