After the second-worst October in Calgary Flames franchise history, the Flames have dug themselves a huge hole just a few weeks into the season. Internally, playoffs have always been the goal for this team, but that goal already seems like an impossible feat after a terrible start to the year. At 4-10-2 and last in the NHL, forget the playoffs, the Calgary Flames would be lucky not to finish in the bottom 10 by the end of the year.
The play-offs are out of reach
It seems strange to say since we’re only in November, but the Flames’ playoff hopes have already completely evaporated. While they’re obviously not eliminated mathematically, their path to the playoffs seems all but impossible after a 4-10-2 start.
Yes. In all three models, the Flames already have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. That’s what being the first team in the NHL with ten regular-season losses will do. While you can argue it’s still early in the season, the Flames’ inability to string together more than two wins has left them in a huge hole. They are currently in a huge uphill battle to get back into the playoff race, with most models giving them little to no chance of getting there.
Looking for a first this century
We all know the Flames are having a hard time making the playoffs, but history shows just how good the chances of making the playoffs are right now. As of November 1, the Flames were ranked last in the entire NHL. Being in that position come November 1 has historically been a death sentence for a team’s playoff hopes.
You’d have to go all the way back to the 1998-99 season to find the last time a team was in last place on November 1 but ultimately made the playoffs. That season, the San Jose Sharks went from last place to the playoffs on November 1, finishing seventh in the Western Conference. They ultimately lost in the first round of the play-offs in six games.
In other words, it’s been 27 years since a team has put together a performance that the Flames will need if they want to make the playoffs this season. The last 25 teams in the Flames position did not make the playoffs. Can they break the trend and become the first team this century to achieve this feat?
An all-time heater is their only hope
At the start of the season, the organization continually praised the story of ‘1 point more’. After missing the play-offs last year by 96 points, the goal this year was to reach the 97-point mark. If that’s still the goal, good luck. After a 4-10-2 start, the Flames are currently playing .313 hockey. Over an entire season of 82 games, that’s a points pace of 51 points. Let’s assume the Flames were right and 97 points is the threshold to make the playoffs this year. Here’s how they should play to get there with 66 games remaining.
With 10 points in 16 games, the Flames need another 87 points in their last 66 games to reach the 97-point mark and presumably the second wild card spot. With a total of 132 points still up for grabs, the team would need to take 87 out of 132 points to end the season. That equates to a .660 point pace from now until the end of the season. In other words, the Flames would need a record of about 42-21-3 the rest of the way to get into the second wild card spot.
For context, only three teams in the entire NHL played at a .660 pace last season: the Golden Knights, Jets and Capitals.
The bottom ten seems inevitable
Team tank fans rejoice. The Calgary Flames appear earmarked for a bottom 10 finish this season, given the big hole they’ve dug for themselves. Last season, the NY Islanders were the 10th worst team in the NHL with 82 points and a .500 points percentage on the year. Considering the Flames’ start, they still need 72 points to reach the 82-point mark.
With 132 points still up for grabs, they would need to get 72 out of 132 points to complete the year. That equates to a .545 point pace, or a record around 31-25-10. I find it very hard to believe that a team that has won four of its first 16 games can suddenly turn it around and win 31 of its last 66.
Even if the Flames played exactly .500 hockey for the rest of the season, they would still only muster 66 points. Then they would have a point total of 76 to end the season. Last year, 76 points tied for 29th in the NHL.
Abandon all hope
Now that we’re in the middle of November, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Flames’ start isn’t just a blip. This is not a good hockey team. Even with a solid .545 finish to the season, the Flames would likely still end up in the bottom 10 at the end of the year. Outside of an all-time heater to end the season, the Calgary Flames find themselves on a rocket straight to the bottom 10 in the NHL.
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