The broader trend of the market remains carefully bearish, but Oversold Signals from the indicators and the proximity to important support zones suggest that a possible jump on the maps can be.
Analyst Sudeep ShahVice -president and head of technical and derivative research, SBI effects Interaction with ET markets with regard to the prospects on Nifty and Bank Nifty together with an index strategy for the coming week. The edited excerpts from his chat follow:
What is the current view of the market?
The Benchmark Nifty index expanded its losing streak for the sixth consecutive week, making it the longest piece of weekly falls since the COVID-19-Marktcrash was marked in 2020. This persistent weakness underlines the prevailing bearish sentiment on the market. What is technically striking is that the index has formed a bearish candle with a long upper shade for the fourth week in a row. This formation indicates that every attempt at a rally is reached with a strong sales pressure, which indicates a lack of belief between bulls and a clear dominance of bears at higher levels.
During the week, the market sentiment further weakened after US President Donald Trump had imposed a rate of 25% on Indian goods, so that trade stresses on Russian oil import from India escalate. The mood was further tempered by weak Q1 income in important sectors and continuous FII sales, which contributed to the pressure on shares.
From a technical point of view, the Nifty index continues to show pronounced weakness. It now acts comfortably under its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs, all of whom shuffle down a clear sign of persistent bearish Momentum. As an addition to the negative prospects, the RSI on the Daily Chart has been introduced a super bearish zone, according to the RSI Range Shift principles.
Further confirmation comes from the MACD indicator, which stays on Bearish territory. The MACD line quotes under both the signal line and the zero line, strengthening the downward trend and indicates that the sales pressure continues to dominate. In general, the technical setup outlines a careful picture for the short term, where meetings are likely to experience resistance and are sold at higher levels.
Speaking of crucial levels, the zone of 24200-24150 will act as important support for the index because it is the confluence of the 200-day EMA level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier upward rally (21743-25669). If the index slips below the level of 24150, it will probably expand its southern journey to the level of 23750. At the top, the 100-day EMA zone of 24570-24600 will act as a crucial obstacle for the index.
How has the August series been played so far? How is it historically for the Indian market?
Following seasonal, in the last 18 years, the August month has often shown a mixed trend for Nifty. On 9 occasions, the index is closed on a positive memorandum with an average profit of 3.68%, while on 9 occasions it ended a negative memorandum with an average loss of 4.45%. The average return for Nifty in the August series was -0.39%. In the past 18 years, Augustus has consistently demonstrated an average volatility of 7.30 percent for the Nifty index.
Historically, Bank Nifty has also shown a mixed trend in August in August. Of these, it closed 9 times, with an average profit of 3.57%, while it ends 9 times negatively, with an average loss of 6.30%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the August series was -1.37%. Bank Nifty, however, has shown an average volatility of around 10.08 percent in the last 18 years.
Are Trump’s rates probably the feeling that sentiment is being filled in further?
Yes, Trump’s rates will probably continue to dampen the market feeling, especially in view of the already vulnerable investor vote. The imposition of an extra rate of 25% in Indian goods adds a low geopolitical and commercial insecurity, which could weigh heavily on sectors that are directly affected by export to the US
However, it is important to note that the effective date of the rates is 27 August, and until that time, markets can remain volatile because investors closely follow the developments around possible negotiations or diplomatic answers. All signs of relaxing tensions or the return of the decision can help limit the disadvantage, but for now the move contributes to the list of headwind with which the market is confronted.
What is your opinion about Bank Nifty? What are the most important levels to watch?
The Banking Benchmark Index Bank Nifty also ended the week on a negative memorandum, which is a reflection of the constant weakness in the financial room. On the weekly graph it formed a bearish candle, which indicates persistent sales pressure. In the past two sessions, the index floats near its 100-day EMA.
In the future, the 100-day EMA zone of 54950–54850 will be a critical support area. A persistent movement below 54850 could intensify the downward trend and open the gates for a decrease in the direction of the next support zone of 54000-53900. At the top, every recovery will probably be confronted with resistance near 55700-55800, which now acts as an important obstacle for the bulls.
Hope of the Fii now? What do the money segment and the FII-long-short ratio indicate?
Given the current data, the hope of FIIs is limited in the short term. Month to date, FII’s shares have sold worth 14018.87 Crore, which reflects a clear risk-off approach in the midst of global uncertainties and domestic headwind.
In addition, the Fii-Lange-Short Ratio for Indexfutures is only 8.28%, the lowest in recent periods, which indicates a heavy bearish positioning. This suggests that FIIs mainly take short positions and strengthen their cautious view of Indian shares.
From a contrary perspective, however, such an extremely low long-diving ratio can also indicate that the market is sold over in the short term, and any positive trigger-as the relaxation of global tensions or favorable domestic signals can lead to short coverage, resulting in a sharp rebound.
What is the image of car and pharma shares?
Nifty Auto: The Nifty Auto Index is consolidated in the range of 24226-22916 for the last 59 trade sessions, which shows resilience in the midst of wider market weakness. It has recently performed better than the front line indices and avoided considerable correction during the wider fall in market. The Ratio-graphic vs. Nifty is 24 weeks high and emphasizes the relative strength. Technically, the index is traded above its 100 and 200-day EMAs, which indicates a positive undertone. However, momentum indicators remain sideways, which suggests a lack of strong directional bias. In the future, a break above 24000 could cause a sharp rally, while the 200-day EMA zone of 23100-23050 will act as crucial support on the other side.
Nifty Pharma: The index has been slipped under its 200-day EMA for the first time since May 2025, which indicates a potential shift in its long-term trend. As an addition to the Bearish tone, the daily RSI has entered a super bearish zone, according to the RSI range -shifting principles, which indicates at the weakening momentum and a lack of purchase interest. In view of these developments, the index will probably expand its downward process in the next few trade sessions. On the other hand, the support zone of 21100-21000 will be crucial. An infringement below this level can speed up the sales pressure and deepen the correction.
What does the IT sector look like now?
The handy IT index continues to show a bearish trend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highlights and lower lows. It remains among the most important progressive averages, which indicates persistent weakness in Momentum. Moreover, the daily RSI is firmly positioned in the bearish zone, according to the RSI Range Shift framework. Given these technical signals, the index seems ready to expand its downward process over the upcoming trade sessions.
Are there shares to take defensive bets because the indices seem difficult to act?
Technically, Kajaria -ceramics, Affle and Pidilite industry look good.
((Indemnification: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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