Five Rule 5 Pitching Prospects for the Rays bullpen

There are a lot of interesting players left unprotected by other organizations after the recent Rule 5 roster deadline, and some of them look like they could fit in the bullpen if the Rays wanted to try their luck again after drafting two such prospects last season.

Below are my top five Rule 5 pitching prospects. These profiles are difficult to project, so I’m certainly not saying these are de facto targets, but they all have outliers, in addition to realistic paths to major league-level roles.

LHP Lael Lockhart (DET)27 years old, 1.80 meters

Why he could stay: Lockhart stands out for his delivery; it starts high on the mound before dropping to a low release height from a three-quarter slot with double plus extension. The deception on his delivery may allow his below-average 90s fastball to flare up a bit, but his splitter hitters should be concerned. It’s a low spin, low 80s bowling ball, which Lockhart shows and has a feel for by placing it just below the zone. Both the movement and velocity separation between his fastball and offspeed pitch are outliers that the Rays have appreciated in the past (Springs, Littell, Devenski and Orze to name a few), and should play in the majors. Lockhart also has a breaking ball in the 70s that he can locate well.

Why he was unprotected and what could change: Lockhart has below-average command. He hasn’t been able to land any of his pitches in the zone at an average velocity, so hitters haven’t had to respect his offspeed or breaking balls, which he does a good job of locating just outside the zone. A double-digit walk rate in AAA usually only gets worse in the majors. Lockhart hasn’t been able to throw enough strikes during his time with the Dodgers or Tigers minor league teams, so unlocking that with the Rays would be a challenge.

Lockhart needs to figure out a fastball shape that allows him to land in the zone enough so hitters need to respect his secondary players. Moving to the bullpen, where he can air it out a bit more, could also add a few more ticks of speed to his arsenal. Maybe it’s the two-seam variant where he showed some promise last season by being able to get into the zone more, or maybe he’s developing a cutter variant.

RHP Gavin Collyer (TEX)24 years old, 1.80 meters

Why he could stay: Collyer throws from a low slot that some might consider sidearm. One of the lower release heights you’ll see, combined with the funk in his delivery, makes it very difficult for hitters to see the ball clearly. He also boasts an above-average fastball of 96-97 mph. He also has a good feel for an above average, low 80s slider with a little more ride than expected.

Why he was unprotected and what could change: Aside from controlling his breaking ball, Collyer has struggled to generate offense at virtually every stop in the Rangers system. Even his cutter, which I expected him to have at least average control over, hasn’t resulted in him getting into the zone enough.

I wonder what it would look like if he threw his slider more; he had usage in the low 20s in AAA last season, but this might be a case where he should lean on it more – perhaps in the 40-50% range. He has enough speed on the fastball to act as “arsenal protection” for poorly placed cutters, and he certainly has enough speed to keep hitters from sitting on the breaking ball. If hitters have to respect a mid-90s fastball from a unique slot, he could get away with more secondary usage than he’s currently showing.

RHP José Rodríguguez (LAD)24 years old, 6’6 RHP

Why he could stay: He’s a big guy who gets down the hill well with a low release height and double plus extension. Rodríguez uses a twisty and violent delivery to release the ball from a low three-quarter slot, with a 96-97 fastball, a tight upper-80s cut slider, and an upper-80s changeup. The different movement profiles of his above-average secondaries, while in the same velocity band, allow him to generate plenty of swing and misses.

Why he was unprotected and what could change: A 14% walk rate in AAA isn’t something that would work in the majors, but his strike and zone rates on his pitches suggest the walk rate would be better in a larger sample. I think if he continued to refine the two-seam variety of his fastball while moving away from the four-seam shape, he could immediately become a lower contributor in the majors, with the potential for more. His delivery has a lot of moving parts, but it works just enough for him to be an effective wild type reliever.

LHP Reggie Crawford (SFG) 24 years old, 1.80 meters

Why he could stay: A great athlete with a starter’s arsenal, Crawford also has a low release height and plus extension that makes his stuff even better. His above-average fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s and he can flirt with triple digits. He also throws a comfortable plus, two-plane breaking ball in the low 80s to both sides of the plate, and he rounds out his arsenal with an average offspeed pitch that has greater distance to the fastball. The former first-round pick is coming off a torn labrum that saw him miss all of 2025 — making him an even more attractive pick because a team could put him on the IL to start the year and more easily navigate Rule 5 roster requirements.

Why he was unprotected and what could change: Crawford has shown command and level 30 health. It’s understandable that a former two-player would struggle in charge as he adjusts to full-time pitching in professional baseball, but his locations are suboptimal and spread out. He has already had TJS and labrum surgery, so there will always be a risk of injury. A team hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and develop him into a high-leverage reliever could take the opportunity of Crawford’s return from injury to rework his delivery and make it more repeatable. He is an impressive athlete, but it is difficult to even get to 40 commands. There is potential for him to be an impact reliever if everything clicks.

RHP Matt Seelinger (DET)30 years old, 6 feet tall

Why he could stay: Seelinger combines a low-90s fastball with a mid-80s cutter with a relatively low release height and high slot. Both may be marginal-average offerings with marginal-average command, but they play a bit thanks to his low-80s knuckleball. The knuckleball’s unique look, combined with his two fastball shapes, makes him difficult to hit when he’s ahead of hitters. While he doesn’t land the knuckleball in the zone at a high speed, the pitch does show a significant discrepancy between that zone speed and strike rate. The data here supports the eye test: Hitters have difficulty distinguishing what is a ball or what is a strike when he can use this outlier throw. Seelinger is able to throw his fastball in-zone and for strikes at a respectable rate, and his cut-ride nature helps him suppress exit velocity better than you might expect.

Why he was unprotected and what could change: Seelinger had already been a member of the organization once; he was acquired from the Pirates for Hechavarria in 2018 before being traded away in 2019. He has bounced around various organizations, including a brief stint in indyball. Seelinger has yet to establish himself and find consistency and the double-digit walk rate in AAA is a bit of a red flag, although his last two seasons in the Tigers organization have been promising. I think he could benefit from more optimized fastball locations; his four-seam fastball should play better above the zone and his cutter could play better than the four-seam as an offering for in-zone and contact management. This shift in philosophy would require him to locate the cutter low early in the counts, then move to his cutter once he’s ahead, peppering fastballs to the letters.

Below are five more names that I expect will have some interest in the Rule 5 draft in December: