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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Having trouble determining your fantasy lineups for Week 16? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top Fire (boom) and Ice (bust) players at each position for Week 16. I also list my sleeper of the week at each position in case you’re in a deeper league or need a replacement for an ice player.
Don’t miss my fire and ice map at the bottom of this page. There, I’ve listed all my fire, good, sleeper, and ice plays for week 16 of the 2025 fantasy football season.
Quarterbacks
Brand QB Start of the week: Brock Purdy (at IND)
Brock Purdy has now gone two straight games without throwing an interception after being reckless with the football in his first four games played this season. He had his best fantasy performance of the season last week against the Tennessee Titans with three touchdowns, nearly 300 passing yards and 26.2 fantasy points. This is another good fit for Purdy, as the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season, behind only the Dallas Cowboys.
Sleeper QB of the Week: JJ McCarthy (at NYG)
McCarthy has put together back-to-back good fantasy performances against the weak Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys secondary over the past two weeks – throwing six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. He gets another juicy matchup this weekend against the New York Giants, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position in 2025.
Ice QB Start of the week: Trevor Lawrence (at DEN)
It’s been quite the stretch for Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last four games and had an insane six-touchdown performance in Week 15. However, he has had a very good schedule over the past month, facing the defenses of the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets. This week will be much tougher on the road in Denver against the Broncos’ elite pass defense. The Broncos have allowed an average of just 10.7 fantasy points to opposing starting quarterbacks at home in 2025.
Running backs
Fire RB Start of the week: Woody Marks (vs. LV)
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has failed to stop opposing running backs over the past month, allowing RJ Harvey (22), Kimani Vidal (20.7), Saquon Barkley (17.2), Quinshon Judkins (16.7) and Dylan Sampson (16.2) to each score at least 16 points against them over the past four weeks. The Houston Texans are the biggest favorites of the week, currently favored by 14.5 points with one of the league’s best defenses, which should give Woody Marks a lot of work to do, especially as Nick Chubb is dealing with a rib injury.
Sleeper RB of the week: Kenneth Gainwell (at DET)
The Steelers have leaned on Jaylen Warren as their starter this season, but Kenneth Gainwell has started to gain some steam in the backfield lately and could be a viable sleeper come the fantasy playoffs. Gainwell has seen more than six goals in four of his past five games and finished with more than 100 scrimmage yards in three of his past five games. Gainwell was the RB6 in all-PPR scoring formats dating back to Week 11 and could see a lot of work in the passing game this week given the Detroit Lions’ strength against the run.
Ice RB Start of the week: Ashton Jeanty (on HOU)
It seems unthinkable to bench a star like Ashton Jeanty, but between the Raiders’ offensive line play and a challenging matchup against the Texans, it may be time. The Raiders have the second-lowest run-blocking grade in the league this year at 50.8, while the Texans rank third in the league with a run defense grade of 77.6. Jeanty has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in three of his last five matchups.
Wide receivers
Fire WR start of the week: Michael Wilson (vs. ATL)
Jacoby Brissett clearly has a stronger bond with Michael Wilson than he does with Marvin Harrison Jr. Even though the latter could be back on the field this weekend, that doesn’t mean fantasy managers should shy away from Wilson.
No defense has allowed more points per game to the wide receiver position since Week 8 than the Atlanta Falcons. In that span, 10 different wide receivers have put up more than 16 fantasy points against the Falcons, including Tetairoa McMillan, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Adonai Mitchell, Jaylen Waddle and DeMario Douglas, all of whom hit at least 20 points against them.
Sleeper WR Start of the week: Jalen Coker (vs. TB)
Jalen Coker has double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games, while scoring 17.4 and 14.0 points over the past two weeks. He has been outplaying his opponents from deep lately, coming up with a receiving touchdown of more than 30 yards in each of the last two games. Coker has become Bryce Young’s go-to guy. He has led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns since Week 12.
Ice WR start of the week: George Pickens (vs. LAC)
George Pickens may be officially opted out of the season. He’s been a ghost lately, rushing for just 37 and 33 yards and zero touchdowns in the last two games. Last weekend, the stingy Minnesota Vikings secondary shut down Pickens, and it won’t get any easier this Sunday when he faces the Los Angeles Chargers, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2025.
Tight ends
Fire TE Starter of the Week: Dalton Schultz (vs. LV)
Dalton Schultz has been an integral part of the Houston Texans offense for most of this season. The only tight end to have more receptions than Schultz since Week 5 is Trey McBride. He scored a whopping 21.6 fantasy points last week against the weak defense of the Arizona Cardinals. I expect another big performance from him against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allowed Dallas Goedert to score 25 points against them in Week 15.
Sleeper TE of the Week: Darren Waller (vs. CIN)
The Miami Dolphins enter a new era in Week 16 with the start of rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers after the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. That could mean good things for Darren Waller as a potential sleeper option, given Ewers’ use of the tight end position at Texas. Between the 2022 and 2024 seasons, four players had accumulated more than 1,000 receiving yards on more than 79 receptions — two of which were tight ends Ja’Tavion Sanders and Gunnar Helm. At 6-foot-1, Waller will provide a hard-to-miss option over center, who has been in the red zone all season and currently leads the team with six receiving touchdowns despite having played just seven games (22.6% of offensive snaps).
Ice TE Start of the week: Brock Bowers (on HOU)
Last week, Brock Bowers had just six receptions for 28 yards and zero touchdowns on eight targets against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Raiders offense couldn’t get anything going in Week 15, and no one should be shocked if they get shut out for the second week in a row this Sunday against the Houston Texans’ elite defense. The Texans had Trey McBride play a big game against them last week, but he was the first tight end to have 50+ yards and a touchdown in a game against Houston this season.
Fire and ice fantasy football games
Here I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good start); (3) Risky players with advantage (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting poor performance by a good player); (5) Stop (must sit).
Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I will not consider starting him in Week 16. I also didn’t include Rams/Seahawks players because they will have already played on Thursday Night Football by the time this article is published.
Fire 🔥
- Q: Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett
- RB: Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Woody Marks
- WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf
- TE: Trey McBride, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz
- DEF: Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Eagles
Thumbs up 👍
- QB: Drake Maye, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield
- RB: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift (if active), Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle
- WR: CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Courtland Sutton, Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore
- TE: Travis Kelce, Colston Loveland, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid
- DEF: Broncos, Saints, Vikings
Upside down 📈
- QB: Dak Prescott, JJ McCarthy, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers
- RB: Kyle Monangai, Kenneth Gainwell, Quinshon Judkins, Tyrone Tracy Jr., David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Michael Carter, Aaron Jones, Kimani Vidal, Tyler Allgeier, Audric Estime, Jordan Mason
- WR: Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, Jauan Jennings, Michael Pittman Jr., Jayden Reed, Troy Franklin, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan, Adonai Mitchell
- Tyler Warren, Theo Johnson, Order Gadsden II
- DEF: Chargers, Jaguars, 49ers, Bears
Ice cream 🥶
- QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Jaxson Dart
- RB: Ashton Jeanty, Derrick Henry, RJ Harvey, Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren, Kareem Hunt, Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: George Pickens, Justin Jefferson, Jakobi Meyers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Stefon Diggs
- TE: Brock Bowers, Harold Fannin Jr., Jake Ferguson, Brenton Strange
- DEF: Packers, Lions, Patriots, Panthers
Stop it 🚫
- QB: Philip Rivers, Marcus Mariota, Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward
- RB: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Devin Singletary
- WR: Deebo Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy
- TE: Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, TJ Hockenson, Dawson Knox,
- DEF: Steelers, Browns, Dolphins
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