The starting point
I was recently browsing through some comments here at Redleg Nation, and as always, some people have opinions on how the Cincinnati Reds should get better. I personally like a nice opinion, but I also like to be realistic and not just assume that there are mythical solutions that do not exist.
My fundamental thesis on how to be a good baseball team is that you try to avoid black holes in your lineup in the first place. Get guys who are at least average wherever you can. Then you need some really good players to get you over the top.
Everyone knows the Reds need to hit better, but I wanted to break things down and look at the production they got from each position. And I’m talking about positional breakdowns here. NO individual players. Let’s first look at where the Reds are in each spot and then we’ll talk about where we can improve. Some positions are stronger than others, so the average varies. As an easy barometer, in this article I’ll look at what the 15th best team in the MLB has done a lot.
Everything set here
At shortstop, the Reds got 4.7 fWAR (editor’s note: the f in fWAR means it is the Fangraphs version of WAR, which differs in some ways from the Baseball-Reference version). That was 7th in baseball. If your shortstop is having an off year and you’re still getting that kind of production, you don’t have to worry about shorting.
At center field, Cincinnati got 3.6 WAR. Most of that was from TJ Friedl, but the subs did well when they were there. The Reds ranked 10th in the MLB in production under center. There’s nothing to see here.
Probably okay
At first base, the Reds put up a 2.0 WAR (14th in the MLB), and it’s weird. Spencer Steer posted 2.1 WAR in the 117 games he spent at first base. He hit and fielded better when he was in the starting lineup. When he did anything else, he was terrible. Of course, a big part of that, as we all know, is that Steer didn’t start the season healthy and wasn’t able to play on the field. He probably shouldn’t have hit either. Sal Stewart also came along to provide 0.4 WAR in 11 games, balancing out some of the awfulness they got from Christian Encarnacion-Strand early in the season.
At second base, a lot of people are grumpy about Matt McLain, and I understand that. But the second position is also a very shallow position at the moment. The Reds got 1.4 WAR out of their second basemen, which was good for 19th in the MLB. 15th (middle of the pack) was only 1.7 WAR. There is certainly an argument for trying to improve this. I don’t claim otherwise. But given all the extenuating circumstances and the relatively shallow talent pool at the position, there’s no real good reason to go that route.
At catcher, Cincinnati manages 1.7 WAR. And again, it was weird. Tyler Stephenson only caught 67 games, but his 0.9 WAR is much better than what the Red got from Jose Trevino, who posted 0.3 WAR in 86 games behind the plate. The team gets a little boost in this spot by Austin Wynns having the best two weeks of his life (don’t read into his numbers, he went to the A’s and immediately returned to Earth). Anyway, the Reds ranked 21st in the MLB here, ranking 15th at 2.7 WAR. So not great, but acceptable considering no one thinks it’s a real upgrade. Given Trevino’s age, the Reds may need to really back him up and hope Stephenson can stay healthy.
Um…
I don’t know what to say about the third one. Santiago Espinal actually got the most time there for the Reds, and he was a disaster, generating -0.4 WAR at the hot corner. Ke’Bryan Hayes was second at the position in playing time, posting 0.6 WAR. Noelvi Marte, third in playing time, was actually the most valuable player overall when he was third. His defense was poor, but he hit very well and managed 1.0 WAR.
Overall, the Reds posted a WAR of 0.9 on third down. That’s 23rd in the MLB, but 15th didn’t check in until 1.6 WAR, so it’s a shallow position right now. Between Hayes, Stewart and Marte, the Reds can probably cobble something together. But I’m not sure what it will look like. Hayes managing to be only slightly bad with the bat would make him an All-Star level player because of his defense, and Espinal is gone. Shrug, I guess?
Black holes
In right field, the Reds got -0.4 WAR. 15th in MLB was 1.1 WAR.
In left field they got -0.3 WAR. 15th in MLB was 2.3 WAR.
Their designated hitters had -0.2 WAR. 15th in MLB was 1.2 WAR.
The right is probably the least concerning area here. You have to think Marte will do well there and probably end up being above average overall. The Reds have gotten some really terrible sub work from Rece Hinds, Connor Joe and Will Benson. My guess is the Reds will have either Hinds or Benson on the roster this year, but probably not both.
Left it depends. Steer could end up as the starter there, assuming Stewart takes over first. If he hits like he did when he was healthy last year, that’s fine.
And so we are left with DH. And Kyle Schwarber’s speech. Or the big bat talk. It’s exactly what the Reds need. They can put together a good defensive formation. Guys are probably valuable enough. They put things together at the end of last season. But there is no extra bat. No guy on the team is currently working as a DH. The exception is maybe – MAYBE – Sal Stewart. But that feels like a bit of a shame. The club could try to improve marginally in a few places. And it could work. But the problem with getting a bunch of guys expecting to be average is that the best you can hope for is average. Whether it’s Schwarber or Cody Bellinger or Eugenio Suarez, the Reds need a scary bat in the lineup. DH is the obvious place to improve. And the Reds CAN afford it. They just can’t get a high-end DH and then sign a reliever for $4 million that they’ll release in June. Or another mediocre outfielder with an injury history who will be a good asset if he can get on the field.
So yeah, this was another long article saying the Reds need a bat. Hopefully I said it in an interesting way.
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