Far too early prediction of the 2026 NL Central classification

The National League Central is consistently one of the most exciting divisions in baseball, and while the Brewers have topped each of the last three and four of the past five seasons, there are still plenty of doubters. While the Brewers have largely held steady this offseason, their NL Central foes haven’t done much so far either. With that in mind, let’s look at each team right now and give a way-too-early standings prediction for 2026.

Note: I’ll discuss each team in order of their 2025 standings, with a 2026 prediction at the end.

The Brewers enter 2026 in a familiar place: never the biggest spender, rarely the preseason favorite, yet consistently the team with the clearest organizational identity. The only big question marks at this point in the offseason are at shortstop and the starting rotation. Will they make any changes at shortstop after Joey Ortiz’s dismal season? Signs point to No. Will they send Freddy Peralta in for a trade? Unclear, but the Brewers are certainly listening to offers. Right now I’d say Peralta will be a brewer by the end of March unless someone makes them an offer they can’t refuse.

With that in mind, they will likely return a strong pitching infrastructure even if the roster shuffles around a bit this winter. Either way, Milwaukee has more pitching depth than most clubs, a habit of squeezing value out of role players and a front office adept at navigating the realities of the mid-range.

Offensively, the Brewers likely need another mid-range anchor (probably not Akil Baddoo) to avoid the streakiness that has defined them in recent seasons. If one of their young outfielders or infielders breaks through, à la Brice Turang, that alone could keep them in pole position. They are not a high-variance team – and in a division full of volatility, stability wins.

As we’ve learned in recent seasons, the Cubs are probably the division’s biggest wild card. Their place in next year’s standings will likely come down to them making a splash – recent reports link them with Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen, Ranger Suárez and Tatsuya Imai. They were also linked to Pete Alonso and Robert Suarez before signing this week, and outfielder Kyle Tucker is also a candidate to re-sign with them, though I think the Cubs would be just as happy with the compensatory pick that comes with him leaving after rejecting their qualifying offer.

Looking at the current roster, the talent is undeniably there, as this is a team that has competed in the division all year until Milwaukee made a big jump in August. The risk? They still lack consistency in rosters. Some years the lineup clicks, and other years it disappears for weeks. Their rotation has strong pieces, but has not remained consistent or healthy. And their aggressive approach to drafting rosters has occasionally produced mismatched pieces.

Their floor is lower than Milwaukee’s, but their ceiling is likely higher, especially if they add a few more pieces this offseason.

The Reds’ youth movement promised fireworks, but 2025 did not bring the full breakthrough many expected. Still, the young pitching core is too talented to ignore, especially if they can stay healthy. Cincinnati’s challenge is on offense. Their line-up consists of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, but there isn’t much outside of these guys. Gavin Lux, Tyler Stephenson and Noelvi Marte have had success, TJ Friedl is a threat for speed and the prospect that Sal Stewart could surpass Sal Frelick as the best Sal in the division. Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t a reliable offensive threat either, although his defense makes him an above-average all-around player.

With another year of experience under their belt, this team is a threat to win the division, especially if Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott stay healthy at the top of the rotation. Their ceiling is high if the stars align, and adding one or two more offensive pieces could be the key to another postseason appearance.

The Cardinals are stuck in a rut and appear ready to go into full teardown mode after trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox this offseason. Fellow veterans Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado are likely next, and that seems to point to a last-place finish for St. Louis in 2026. I won’t say much more about the Cardinals here – unlike the Cardinals of the 2000s and 2010s, the franchise hasn’t been a threat in recent seasons, and I expect more of the same next year.

The Pirates always seem to be going on mini hot streaks, but they are not a team that has been able to put together a full season since the mid-2010s, when they reached the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they are stuck with Bob Nutting as their owner.

Still, with a generational talent in Paul Skenes leading the rotation and young players like Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones behind him, this could be one of the best top-to-bottom rotations in the division, with the caveat of health. Dennis Santana proved to be a formidable closer after David Bednar was traded at the deadline, and that gives Pittsburgh something to build on.

Offensively, the Pirates are in the same boat as the Reds. Joey Bart and Henry Davis are serviceable at best behind the plate, the best infield bat is Nick Gonzales, which isn’t saying much, and Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz anchor the outfield as the best bats on the roster as it stands. They added prospect Jhostynxon “The Password” Garcia in a recent trade with the Red Sox, and they have also been linked to Brandon Lowe of the Rays and free agent Willi Castro after losing to Kyle Schwarber in the lottery. A few more bats and this Pirates team could be a threat in the division.

Like everyone else, I continue to root against the Brewers even though they’ve given me a million reasons not to.

But I never like being wrong as much as when Milwaukee wins the division.

This should be a big battle again in 2026, as the Reds and Pirates could suddenly be a real threat with an extra offense. The Cardinals are really the only real weak spot, especially if they unload the rest of their veterans. Who do you think the division crowd will take home in 2026? Weigh in in the comments!