Fantasy Football: Players who started hot and finished cold

• Emeka Egbuka fell back down to earth as the season progressed: The rookie’s hot start gave way to a quiet stretch after Tampa Bay’s receiving corps got healthy. He was the half PPR WR3 through week 5, but the WR43 from weeks 6 through 17.

• The Dolphins’ offensive problems bothered Jaylen Waddle: Although he was the WR10 through the first ten weeks, Waddle could not overcome the Dolphins’ average of 57.8 offensive plays per game – the lowest mark in the NFL.

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Health, touchdown dependency and offensive environmental factors can significantly impact the productivity of NFL players. In some of these cases, players can start out hot and produce quality fantasy scoring results before cooling off and producing unusable stats late in the season.

We’ll break down three such players, using weeks 1-17 and half points per reception as standard formats unless otherwise noted.

WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

First-round rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka opened the season as the overall WR3 from Weeks 1-5, scoring 89.9 half PPR points. He produced only two top-36 finishes after that, finishing as the WR34 of Week 7 and the overall WR3 of Week 10. He was the WR43 in Weeks 6 through 17 and only managed 73.0 half PPR points. Of the 36 wide receivers with at least 700 offensive snaps in Weeks 1-17, Egbuka’s PFF offensive grade of 68.2 ranked 27th.

Buccaneers No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans missed Weeks 4-6 due to a hamstring injury and Weeks 8-15 due to a broken collarbone and concussion. Slot receiver Chris Godwin sat out weeks 1-3 while rehabbing his fibula fracture and ankle dislocation that ended in 2024, and he missed weeks 6-11 with a new fibula injury. Both Evans (71.2) and Godwin (68.8) had career-low PFF receiving grades this season.

Egbuka produced career high receptions and receiving yards totals, with both players sidelined in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks’ elite defense, grabbing all seven targets for 163 yards and one touchdown en route to an overall WR2 finish.

The table below compares Egbuka’s receiving data in Weeks 1-5 among 36 wide receivers with at least 30 targets during that span, as well as Weeks 6-17’s receiving data among 33 wide receivers with at least 62 targets during that span.

Egbuka earned 28 first-read objectives at a rate of 24.3% in weeks 1 through 5, accounting for 73.7% of his total objectives during that period. He earned 67 first-read objectives in weeks 6 through 17 at a rate of 32.5%, accounting for 78.8% of his total objectives for the period.

Then Egbuka suffered a hamstring strain in week 6. While he was able to play in Week 7, he saw fewer goals on plays where he didn’t operate like the first read, which could be attributed to the lingering effects of the soft tissue injury.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield dealt with a biceps injury in his throwing arm early in the season (Week 4), followed by a knee injury (Weeks 8-10), an oblique strain (Week 10), a left AC joint sprain (Weeks 12-15) and a right shoulder injury (Week 18). He was also listed with an illness in Week 12. He earned a PFF grade of 64.8 this year, the lowest in each of his three seasons with the Buccaneers.

Egbuka’s exceptional route-per-route efficiency early in the season suggests he’s a talented player whose fantasy value wasn’t artificially inflated by touchdown productivity. His hamstring injury and Mayfield’s poor health were likely major factors in his cold spell.

TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Ferguson had five top-five positional finishes in Weeks 1-7, while Cowboys No. 1 wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was sidelined with a high ankle sprain in Weeks 4-6. Ferguson was plagued by a calf injury in Week 14 for the rest of the season, including an aggravation in Week 17. He had just three TE1 finishes in Weeks 8-17, peaking at the overall TE7 spot in Week 11.

Ferguson’s 2025 PFF qualifying grade of 60.2 ranked 27th among 34 tight ends with at least 525 offensive snaps in Weeks 1-17. Lamb, meanwhile, posted a PFF grade of 79.0 – the second-lowest mark in his six NFL seasons. The reasons behind Ferguson’s hot start and cold finish were clear.

He completed targets at a rate of 27.6% in Weeks 1-7, while averaging 1.59 yards per route and earning a PFF grade of 68.1. These figures decreased in weeks 8 to 17 to 14.6%, 0.96 and 53.8 respectively. The two per-play stats dropped to 13.5% and 0.89, respectively, during his calf-affected stretch in Weeks 14-17. Ferguson earned a PFF grade of 59.4 during that span.

The 27-year-old is a starting caliber, but his inflated early-season success can be attributed in part to environmental factors, while his late-season cold streak was similarly impacted by his calf injury and the return of the Dallas receiving corps to good health.

WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Waddle’s 120.3 half PPR points scored in weeks 1-10 earned him the overall WR10 spot in the season scoring. He then managed just 41.8 half PPR points in weeks 11 through 17, making him the WR44 during that period. Waddle’s hot start and cold finish are difficult to explain, although an offensive environmental factor could be the cause. He earned the second-highest PFF grade (85.1 PFF receiving grade) of his five NFL seasons.

Waddle played Weeks 3-4 due to a shoulder injury from Week 2. He managed to strain both hamstrings during Thursday practice of Week 8, but did not miss any games. He played through foot injuries in weeks 10 and 13 and was ultimately sidelined in week 18 after suffering a rib injury in week 17.

Waddle produced overall WR22, WR45, WR4 and WR11 results during his injured weeks 1-10. He finished as the WR48 and WR28 in his two active, injury-affected games from Weeks 11-17.

Dolphins No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 with multiple ligament injuries, reducing Waddle’s target competition. Hill earned a PFF grade of 81.0 this season. Despite the expected role increase, Waddle never saw double-digit goals in a game this season. He did that just once last year, recording 12 in Week 14 against the New York Jets.

Waddle earned 65 targets at a 22.9% rate while averaging 2.36 yards per route and earning a PFF grade of 87.2 in Weeks 1-10. He earned 34 targets at a rate of 25.8% while averaging 1.82 yards per route and a PFF grade of 70.9 in Weeks 11-17.

Miami notably benched starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers in Week 16, but that means less than two full games for Waddle considering his rib injury in Week 17. Tagovailoa’s PFF grade of 65.8 easily exceeded Ewers’ 40.5 mark.

Miami’s 57.8 offensive plays per game ranked last, limiting Waddle’s ability to get sizable targets. That data point is probably the biggest contributor to Waddle’s cold finish, although he will be studied further this season.