Although the general market trend remains careful bearish, suggesting signals of technical indicators and the proximity of the index to critical support levels that can be a potential rebound.
Analyst Rahul Ghose, founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, interaction with ET markets with regard to the prospects on Nifty and Bank Nifty, together with an index strategy for the coming week. The following are edited fragments from his chat:
What is the current view of the market?
It has been a tough week for Indian shares. On August 8, both the Sesex and the Nifty slid almost 1%, with the handy closure below 24,400, the weakest level since May. This marks the sixth consecutive week of losses, the longest losing series in five years. The mood is cautious, with global worries, American tariff news, steady outlet and some non -inspiring Q1 results that buy buyers on the sidelines. The volatility is picking up and the market now feels very much in the head.
What to expect now that Nifty is closed under 24,500 on Friday?
Closing under the psychological 24,500 mark is a warning sign for the bulls. If the Nifty cannot reclaim this level quickly, the next zone to view is 23,900 and lower. We can see briefly covering rallies along the way, but the larger trend will only be positive if we come to an end above 24,850. For the time being, traders must be disciplined and not avoid going too heavy. The election results-related news broke the entire rally that took place on Thursday. If Nifty manages to close above 24,850, you can see another 600 points on the front; Otherwise we will go to the 23,900-24,000 levels.
How has the August series been played so far? How has it been historic?
In August has not been nice so far. FIIs are net sellers every day and the index is driven lower. Historically, Augustus can be a mixed month – some years of seeing profits, others see turbulent sideways trade – but 2025 started with a clearly negative bias. A combination of global uncertainty and local pressure has made it one of the weakest starts until August in several years.
Are Trump rates probably the feeling of the feeling further?
Yes, they already have that. The move from President Trump to double rates on some Indian export has confused trust, especially in export -oriented sectors such as textiles, gems, jewelry and chemicals. Although IT services are less directly influenced, the wider effect is psychologically – worldwide investors do not like trade tensions, so that another reason is added to sell risk provisions.
What is the view on Bank Nifty? Main levels to view?
Bank Nifty closed at 55,521 after repairing lows, but the tone remains weak. Support is 55,125 and then 54,729, if those levels give way, a deeper slide cannot be excluded. At the top it has to get past 56,011 to give the bulls some breathing space. Expect sharpness instead of a clear trend for the time being.
Hope of FIIs now?
Not immediately. Foreign Investors already achieved almost RS 16,000 crore in August, largely because of the risk-off sentiment and concerns about the dynamics of the US-India trade. The good news is that domestic institutions intervene to buy and help the fall to kiss the fall, but FIIs who become buyers will probably need quiet global conditions.
What are your observations of the profit season so far. Any hope for revival?
Income has been a mixed bag. Some names such as Mapmyindia and Kalpataru projects have yielded strong figures, but others such as Biocon and Godrej Consumer have disappointed. Until now, there is no broad income -guided rally in sight, although positive surprises of heavyweight companies can help later in the season to shift the sentiment.
What is the technical display on SBI after the Q1 results?
SBI was impressed by a 12% profit on an annual basis to RS 19,160 Crore, helped by a healthy loan and deposit group. That said, higher financing costs are under pressure from the margins and facilities remain increased. The share is above its long-term average and acts between RS 785 and RS 835-it is fundamentally solid, but the wider headwind of the sector is still important.
What does the IT sector look like now?
The IT package continues to feel the heat -not so much from rates, but of the global technical delay and FII sales. Although a few individual shares have been held up, the index as a whole looks vulnerable and it may need better global signals to reverse.
Are there sectors that probably perform better?
Defensive bags, in particular FMCG and selected energy names, have lately been the relatively safe zones and have fallen less than the wider market. Piles, high -quality financial caps and certain energy games can continue to offer stability, at least until the market sentiment improves.
Any defensive stock ideas while the indices are difficult to exchange?
In difficult markets it is wise to stay with quality, liquid names that can retain their land. Large CAP defensives such as HDFC Life, NTPC and Titan fit this account, just like FMCG-Majors such as Hindustan Unilever and selected PSU energy companies such as Indian Oil. They may not shoot at night, but they can help the pillow portfolios against larger falls.
(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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