   
Bitcoin could still face a significant downside if historical bear market patterns continue to play out.
According to a recent technical analysis from TradingShot, BTC follows the exact structural blueprint observed in every previous bear cycle. Indicators now indicate that the market has entered the early contraction phase.
The analyst points to the three-week stochastic oscillator, which has moved into the same zone where previous bear cycles completed their first phase before brief relief rallies.
Historically, this transition occurred roughly two to three three-week candles after the cycle peak. In today’s market, that signal appeared even faster, reinforcing the view that the bearish structure is already in motion.
Another factor is the rate at which Bitcoin’s decline towards long-term moving averages is accelerating. This cycle marked the fastest approach to the one-week MA100 during a bear market correction, with similar tests of the three-week MA50 and MA100 likely ahead.
 While that may sound alarming, the analyst argues that it also reflects a broader trend of decreasing volatility across cycles.
Each successive bear market has produced smaller percentage declines. The first cycle saw losses of almost 94%, followed by declines of 87%, 84% and roughly 77% in the most recent cycle.
This steady slowdown suggests that Bitcoin is maturing as adoption increases and market depth increases. Moredo, the current cycle’s downturn is expected to peak around 60-70%.
Applying these parameters places a potential cycle bottom between $38,000 and $50,000, with $50,000 cited as the most likely minimum target before a sustainable bottom emerges.
Analysts also believe that stronger ETF inflows or accelerated adoption through corporate government bonds could limit the negative impact, but further weakness is likely without these catalysts.
Meanwhile, the CoinMarketCap data reflects growing caution. Bitcoin rose 1.28% to $89,313 in the past 24 hours.
The move followed a break below the $88,000 support level, while the slowdown in Federal Reserve easing and weaker labor market data reinforced risk aversion.
#Expert #Reveals #Bitcoin #Plunge #Market #Completely #Bottoms