It is widely believed that Expected Goals is the best way to measure how well Premier League clubs are playing in a given match.
To better see how teams are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric can give you a better idea of how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to calculate how many goals should be scored in a match.
Each individual shot is assigned an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors such as distance to goal, type of shot and number of defenders present influencing the value.
The higher the xG of a given shot, the greater the chance that a goal will be scored with that shot.
The xG value of each shot in a match is then used to calculate the expected goals in a given match.
So instead of just the usual basic stats of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals takes into account where the shot was taken from, how good the chance was and if there were any defenders in the way, etc.
These expected goals stats from Sunderland 1 Newcastle 0:
Sunderland 0.29 Newcastle United 0.25
As you can see, Sunderland has a better expected goals stat than Newcastle United.
The reality, however, is that the threat from both sides was virtually non-existent on Sunday afternoon. You need a magnifying glass to see it.
Newcastle United didn’t create any quality chances, nor did Sunderland.
Bruno Guimaraes had two attempts on goal from outside the penalty area that could never beat the keeper. While Sunderland’s only attempt on target was a shot from a narrow angle in the 72nd minute, Ramsdale would never be in trouble.
As you can see from the other underlying stats below, Newcastle have more shots (6 to 5), more efforts on goal (2 to 1), more possession (54% to 46%) and more corners (6 to 3).
The most telling statistic, however, is that the two teams each had just 14 touches in the other side’s penalty area, definitely weak.
This corresponds to what we have seen with our own eyes.
I really feel sorry for Nick Woltemade, he turned a standard cross into a stunning own goal, which was actually the only real threat to either goal in the entire match.
Sunderland 1 Newcastle 0 – Sunday 14 December 2025 2pm
Match statistics
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Sunderland:
Woltemade OG 46
Possess was Newcastle 54% Sunderland 46%
Total shots were Newcastle 6 Sunderland 5
Shots on target were Newcastle 2 Sunderland 1
Corners were Newcastle 6 Sunderland 3
Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 14 Sunderland 14
Newcastle team vs Sunderland:
Ramsdale, Livramento, Thiaw, Burn (Schar 42), Hall, Tonali (Willock 59), Miley, Bruno, Gordon (Barnes 59), Woltemade (Wissa 75), Elanga (Jacob Murphy 59)
Unused subs:
Ruddy, Joelinton, Alex Murphy, Ramsey
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