Expected goals is generally agreed to be the best way to measure how well Premier League clubs play in a certain game.
To look better at how the parties are doing, with the expected goals (XG) metric you can get a better picture of how teams perform.
Expected goals (XG) is a statistics that are used to work out how many goals must be scored in a match.
With any shot that has assigned an XG value on the basis of the difficulty of the attempt, with factors such as a goal, type of shot and the number of defenders present that influences the value.
The higher the XG of a certain shot, the greater the chance that a goal must be scored from that shot.
The XG value of each recording in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a certain game.
So instead of just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, expected goals where shots were made and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These are the five Premier League matches from 3 pm kick-off matches from Saturday, with the expected target statistics (plus the actual final score in hooks) via Understat:
Bournemouth 1.44 V Brighton 0.62 (2-1)
Crystal Palace 1.76 V Sunderland 0.35 (0-0)
Everton 1.89 Villa 0.35 (0-0)
Fulham 1.14 V Leeds 0.83 (1-0)
Newcastle United 1.19 V Wolves 0.38 (0-0)
As you can see, some very interesting competitions, both in terms of their final results and the expected target statistics.
These expected goals statistics give us a better idea of how these competitions really went, further than just the latest score.
Two things are immediately clear.
The three teams that won (Bournemouth, Fulham, Newcastle United) all also had a clear advantage in the expected target statistics.
While we see in the other two games, we see that, like all the other underlying statistics that also support this, both Sunderland and Villa were incredibly lucky to get an unmerited point in Palace and Everton respectively.
Both Everton and Palace had an expected goals more than five times higher than their opponent.
When it came to how many chances created and what quality, Newcastle United had an expected goals that was more than three times higher than wolves.
Indeed, no surprise that Nick Pope and his defense already have three clean sheets in four games. NUFC limited wolves to very few clear opportunities, in fact none at all in the second half. This is summarized by a very low 0.38 expected target status for wolves, of the ten clubs that started on Saturday at 3 p.m., only Sunderland and Villa had an even lower stat, both were only 0.35.
Newcastle 1 Wolves 0 – Saturday, September 13, 2025 3 p.m.
(Statistics via BBC Sport))
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Woltemade 29
Wolves:
Possess Was Newcastle 57% Wolves 43%
Total number of shots were Newcastle 16 wolves 8
Shots on goal were Newcastle 4 Wolves 3
Corner were Newcastle 10 wolves 4
Touches in the box Newcastle 29 Wolves 23
Newcastle Team V Wolves:
Pope, Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton (Willock 65), Barnes (Elanga 80), Woltemade (Osula 65), Murphy (Botman 95)
Subs:
Ramsdale, Hall, Thiaw, Krafth, Miley
(Match Report – Until someone reminds me of it, it was the first of the 200 goals of Nick Woltemade for Newcastle United … read here)
(Newcastle 1 Wolves 0 – Match – Reviews and comments about all Newcastle United players – Read here)
(Newcastle 1 Wolves 0 – Instant Newcastle United Fan/Writer Response – Read here)
Newcastle United Apparatures confirmed dates and times (all Champions League matches will also be available to watch TV in the UK):
Thursday, September 18: Newcastle United vs FC Barcelona (8 p.m.)
Sunday, September 21 – Bournemouth V Newcastle (2 p.m.) Sky Sports
Wednesday 24 September – Newcastle V Bradford (7.45 pm) Sky Sports+
Sunday 28 September– Newcastle against Arsenal (4.30 pm) Sky Sports
Wednesday 1 October: Union SG vs Newcastle United (5:45 pm)
Sunday 5 October– Newcastle V Forest (2 p.m.) Sky Sports
Saturday, October 18 – Brighton V Newcastle (3 p.m.)
Tuesday, October 21: Newcastle United vs Benfica (8 p.m.)
Saturday, October 25 – Newcastle in Fulham (3 p.m.)
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