Ethereum price is still above the fair value zone, has a strong long-term structure and is cooling off from previous highs.
Summary
- Ethereum holds above $3,900 despite declining volume.
- Data from the chain indicates a healthy consolidation phase.
- Foreign exchange inflows indicate mild selling pressure in the short term.
At the time of writing, Ethereum was trading at $3,976, up 2.3% in the past 24 hours. Over the past week, the asset has ranged between $3,709 and $4,080, up 4%, but remains down about 5% over the past month. ETH is currently 19% below its all-time high of $4,956 recorded on August 24.
At $33.68 billion, Ethereum’s (ETH) 24-hour trading volume is down 15.4%. This suggests that activity has slowed after a recent period of rapid movement.
Derivatives volume fell 13.27% to $84.02 billion, according to CoinGlass factswhile open interest rose 5.32% to $46.2 billion. This mix often indicates that short-term trading has cooled, while traders continue to hold open positions with moderate confidence.
The Ethereum price remains strongly above fair value
According to a message from October 23 analysis by CryptoQuant on-chain analyst TeddyVision, Ethereum remains “above fair value, but cooling off from the top.” Fair value is often represented by realized price, which is the average cost at which all ETH in circulation was last moved on-chain, essentially reflecting what most holders paid for their coins.
ETH continues to trade above its realized price of around $2,300, which historically marked the lower bound during fear-driven market phases. Staying above this level will create a healthy and resilient market structure.
With an MVRV ratio of 1.67, holders make an average of 67% profit. This means the market is profitable, but not overheated, and confident, but not euphoric. The price action also retreated before reaching the upper realized price range near $5,300, indicating a natural consolidation after recent gains rather than a trend reversal.
TeddyVision added that holders appear to have no problem keeping their profits as the inflow of new spot prizes declines. The next step up will likely require new liquidity, not leverage-based purchases.
Alternating currents indicate caution in the short term
Another CryptoQuant analyst, CryptoOnchain, marked a shift in Ethereum’s net exchange flows from outflows to inflows, indicating some near-term caution.
Total exchange net flow has moved from approximately -57,000 ETH to +7,000 ETH over the past week, with Binance accounting for almost half of this shift. The exchange’s 7-day net flow increased from -31,000 ETH to +3,000 ETH, indicating that some holders are moving ETH to exchanges, possibly to sell.
While this pattern is not alarming, if it continues, especially in combination with a slowing spot market, it could indicate potential selling pressure.
Technical analysis of Ethereum prices
Ethereum’s technical indicators reflect a neutral stance. The relative strength index of 46.2 indicates balanced momentum, while other oscillators such as the Stochastics, the commodity channel index and the average directional index also show a lack of strong directional bias.
The short-term moving averages (10-day EMA and SMA) are in buy territory near $3,900, showing resilience, but the 20-50-day averages remain bearish, indicating broader consolidation. However, the 200-day EMA remains well below current prices of $3,577, confirming that the long-term uptrend is intact.
The next target could be between $4,500 and $4,800 if ETH maintains its position above $3,900 and breaks above $4,100. If selling pressure increases, a drop below $3,700 could pave the way for a move towards $3,400 or even $3,000.
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