Ethereum Price Prediction: Is $1,500 Next for ETH After ‘Aggressive Deleveraging’?

Ethereum has entered an aggressive deleveraging phase, breaking decisively lower after weeks of distribution near the upper end of its medium-term range. A key macro driver behind this move appears to be the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has pushed broader risk assets into de-risk mode and amplified existing technical vulnerabilities in the ETH market.

The combination of macro uncertainty, increased debt levels and a fragile chart structure has led to a sharp decline rather than a controlled decline.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH has broken off from its previous bullish structure stretching from the late 2025 lows and has failed to break above the 100- and 200-day moving averages, both of which are now above $3,000. This price behavior has confirmed a transition from corrective sideways action to a clear downtrend.

The price has also fallen below the first major demand band around $2,200-$2,000, coinciding with an earlier consolidation base and the origin of the latest strong impulsive advance. The daily RSI has also entered deep oversold territory in the low 20s, indicating tense short-term conditions.

However, as long as the market remains below the broken moving averages and previous support around $2,200, the broader structure continues to point to a bear market rally at best rather than a confirmed reversal.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart highlights the speed of the current sell-off, with ETH breaking below the previously defended support range of $2,800-$2,900 and barely pausing at intermediate levels. The market is now trying to stabilize around $1,850-$1,900, and a mild bullish divergence is emerging on the 4-hour RSI, where momentum is starting to print higher lows despite marginally lower price lows.

This configuration often indicates that the forced selling pressure is easing and that a rebound or lateral consolidation may follow in the short term.

Immediate resistance is now in the $2,100-$2,200 area, with a stronger supply zone at $2,800. Any rebound that lingers below these bands would keep the intraday trend firmly bearish, while a clean break below the recent low at $1,800 would pave the way to the deeper demand zone at $1,500.

Sentiment analysis

On the derivatives side, open interest in Ethereum futures has collapsed from elevated levels above USD 30 billion to almost a third of that size. This tracks the price decline and signals a large-scale liquidation cascade rather than an orderly reduction in positioning. This sharp contraction in open interest indicates that a significant portion of leveraged long positions have been squeezed out of the market, with margin calls and automatic deleveraging accelerating the downtrend once key support levels fell away.

While such events are painful in the short term, they also tend to remove excess debt from the system, leaving a lighter positioning backdrop where spot flows and new capital, rather than overcrowded derivative exposure, can play a greater role in determining the next price move.