Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Rebounds to Head to $3K, But Bearish Pressure Remains

Ethereum has seen a slight rebound in recent days after finding support near $2,500. While the price action remains technically bearish overall, there is a slight improvement in the short-term structure. However, caution is still required as macro resistance levels loom overhead.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, it is clear that ETH is currently trading around $2,900, having bounced back from the $2,500 demand zone. This level remained strong support, leading to a short-term rally that has now pushed the asset into a tight supply zone near $3,000. The RSI has also left the oversold level and is now near 36, indicating some cooling in bearish momentum.

Still, the price is well below the 200-day (yellow) and 100-day (blue) moving averages, which act as dynamic resistance. To make the structure bullish again, ETH needs to reclaim the $3,500 area and consolidate above. Until then, upward moves are considered corrective. A failure here could result in another decline towards $2,500 or even the critical low at $2,100.

The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH formed a bearish flag just below the $3,000 resistance. This pattern often indicates a potential disadvantage in the event of a defect. The price has failed to break above the key supply zone at $3,000 and is now showing signs of stagnation, with the RSI hovering around the 50 level.

If this flag fails, the immediate negative target is the demand area between $2,600 and $2,500. On the other hand, a breakout above $3,000 on strong volume could invalidate the flag and open the door to $3,500. However, given the convergence of resistance, buyers should be cautious here and avoid chasing longs in major zones.

Sentiment analysis

Open interest

Looking at the broader sentiment and futures data, open interest on Ethereum has fallen significantly over the past week and is now around $16.9 billion. This cooling OI, along with lower funding rates, signals a decline in speculative positioning, which is often a sign that the market is transitioning to a more neutral state after a wave of forced liquidations.

The drop in open interest is also consistent with the recent price recovery, which was not heavily supported by leverage, typically a healthier kind of rebound. However, the fact that OI has not yet recovered indicates hesitation among market participants and a lack of conviction in this move.

Until both open interest and price start rising again, the bias remains cautious. Many traders are likely to be sidelined or taking less risk in anticipation of major resistance.