England are in sight of the semi-finals, but await another test run against Pakistan

AAfter four wins in five games, and now just one away from a place in the semi-finals, it is difficult to describe England’s progress at the World Cup as ugly. But it hasn’t been easy. Like an upside-down swan, everyone can see them struggling – but somehow their progress so far has been serene.

There are no bonus points available for artistic merit and to win tournaments you just need to be slightly better than your opponents at each stage. The 2021 Australian T20 champions, for example, were a side that few considered the best in that competition – and were notably destroyed by England in the group stages – until Aaron Finch lifted the trophy in Dubai.

Harry Brook continues to promise an upcoming launch. “Look, we still haven’t had that perfect match,” he said after the win over Sri Lanka on Sunday. “With the bat we have not been able to get the high scores that we would like and everyone is happy to watch. But I think that is quite an exciting prospect. In my eyes I see that as something that will happen very soon.”

But maybe not in the short term. Tuesday’s match against Pakistan promises to be another tough one given England’s struggles against spin and their opponents’ abundance of spinners.

Pakistan have bowled just 16.5 overs in the tournament, by far less than any other team. So far in this tournament, 78.2% of Pakistan’s deliveries have come from their spinners. Against India, they bowled 17 consecutive overs with spin and that number reached 90%. They could well plot something similar in a high-stakes match against England. Defeat, after their first Super 8s match was canceled, would leave them on the brink of elimination.

“They fought against the spinners,” Pakistan’s Sahibzada Farhan said of England’s performance against Sri Lanka. “We have some of the best spinners so I am confident we will make things difficult for them. Morale is very high and we are very confident.”

Apparently England’s weakness against spin has not gone unnoticed and no team at this World Cup has had to deal with it so often. If the bare statistics don’t suggest that they are completely unhappy – 59.6% of the deliveries they have faced have been delivered by spinners, yielding an almost perfectly matched 59.4% of their wickets and 58% of their runs – their discomfort is evident in real life.

So far, Jacob Bethell has only been dismissed by spinners, while Brook has lost his wicket in four out of five games. In England’s only defeat, against the West Indies in Mumbai, he meekly pushed the ball back into the hands of Gudakesh Motie and said afterwards that he would “much rather be caught on the boundary than like I did today”. But Brook’s dismissals were still marked by embarrassment, including against Sri Lanka, when he was trapped by Dunith Wellalage as he tried to parry the ball down the leg side.

“We were very good [against spin] in the bilateral series here against Sri Lanka,” said Liam Dawson. “We had some tough games but we won. We know we can hit much better than we’ve ever hit, but we won games and that’s the most important thing.”

On Sunday, Dawson beat Jamie Overton, whose strength is strength against pace. “We were just trying to hold him a little further back until the seamstresses came,” Dawson said.

While England have once again opted not to name their team until the toss, the fact that the Seamers may not bat at all in this game means that the choice between Overton and Luke Wood will likely come down to their bowling alone. Will the temptation not to change a winning team be outweighed by the urge to change an unconvincing team?

One thing England do have in their favor is familiarity with their surroundings. Pakistan has played one match in the past decade in Pallekele, a one-day international against India; England have played four T20s here in the last month and won them all.

It is a completely new location for Farhan. “This is my first time here, but all our senior players have played here,” he said. “I’ve heard that batting is good and the ball lands well on the bat. But England’s match against Sri Lanka was a bit different. Tomorrow we will know how the wicket behaves.”

Farhan is the tournament’s top scorer with 220 runs, but all of those came against the three weaker teams in their group in the first round – against India he was dismissed for a duck. Like Sri Lanka’s Pathum Nissanka, whose quick dismissal was the cause of Sunday’s collapse, he will be the wicket England want more than anything as they begin their work in the field. “Yes, they will definitely have a plan,” Farhan said. “But I also have a plan. They won’t be the only ones with a plan.”