Eli Lilly Beats Quarterly Expectations and Posts Strong Outlook as Zepbound and Mounjaro Sales Soar

The pharmaceutical giant expects its sales to reach between $80 billion and $83 billion by 2026. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.

Lilly also expects adjusted earnings this year to be between $33.50 and $35 per share. That compares with analysts’ estimate of $33.23 per share, LSEG said.

The guidance is in stark contrast to competitor prospects Novo Nordiskwhich is also struggling with lower prices in the US following historic deals both companies made with President Donald Trump to lower the cost of obesity and diabetes drugs. Unlike Lilly, Novo warned on Tuesday that sales and profits will fall as much as 13% this year as US prices fall and exclusivity for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs expires in China, Brazil and Canada.

Meanwhile, in the middle of Lilly’s revenue guidance, Lilly sees revenue growing 25% this year.

The strong outlook comes days after Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC in an exclusive interview that he expects the government’s upcoming Medicare coverage of obesity treatments to expand the U.S. market for these drugs this year, saying it is a “major multiplier on the eligible pool” of patients.

In an earnings presentation Wednesday, Lilly cited several factors it will benefit from this year, including Medicare coverage, continued global demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, and the expected launch of its GLP-1 obesity pill in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval.

But Lilly said it will be hit by a global price decline of a percentage in the low teens, due to the Trump deal, new direct-to-consumer rates for Zepbound and lower Medicaid prices for some older products, among other factors.

Lilly is working to maintain its dominance in the booming market for these drugs, called GLP-1s, while Novo is seeing a boom in the US for its new Wegovy anti-obesity pill. Ahead of that January rollout, Lilly’s share of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market rose to 60.5% in the fourth quarter, up 2.6% from the previous quarter, the presentation showed. Novo’s market share in the fourth quarter was 39.1%.

Mounjaro brought in $7.41 billion in revenue this quarter, up 110% from the same period a year ago. U.S. sales for Mounjaro were $4.1 billion, up 57%, as demand increased but realized prices were lower. These figures exceeded what analysts expected for the quarter, according to StreetAccount.

Zepbound, which launched about three years ago, posted $4.2 billion in U.S. revenue in the fourth quarter. That is 122% more than in the same period a year earlier, because demand for the medicine also increased, while realized prices fell. Analysts expected US revenue of $3.91 billion for Zepbound, according to StreetAccount.

Here’s what Eli Lilly reported for the fourth quarter, compared to what Wall Street expected, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $7.54 adjusted versus $6.67 expected
• Gain: $19.29 billion versus $17.96 billion expected

Shares of Eli Lilly rose more than 7% in premarket trading.

The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $19.29 billion, up 43% from the same period a year ago.

US sales rose to $12.9 billion. Eli Lilly said this was driven by a 50% increase in volume – or number of prescriptions or units sold – for its products, mainly for Mounjaro and Zepbound. That was partially offset by lower realized prices of those drugs, the company said.

The pharmaceutical giant posted a fourth-quarter net profit of $6.64 billion, or $7.39 per share. That compares with net income of $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding one-time items related to the value of intangible assets and other adjustments, Eli Lilly posted a profit of $7.54 per share for the fourth quarter.

Novo and Lilly’s deals with Trump are expected to ultimately increase prescriptions but ultimately hurt overall sales.

Under the agreements, Lilly and Novo will lower the prices of these treatments for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries in 2026 and offer them directly to consumers at a discount on the Trump administration’s direct-to-consumer platform, TrumpRx, which has yet to be launched.

In return, both companies will also receive a three-year tariff waiver.

In the interview with CNBC on Friday, Lilly’s Ricks acknowledged that under the drug pricing deal, there will be “a price reduction” early this year. But he said volume growth for the company’s drugs “will accelerate in the second half of the year.”