The goal of a trade is to gain the upper hand over your opponent. “Suckers,” you hope to shout at your trading partners. Let them feel your wrath, but in terms of brains. Basically, BrainWise is what you think they call you in your class. Like Pennywise, but with brains. “Don’t trade with BrainWise,” you think they say about you. In reality, they think you’ve been in rebuilding mode for 17 years and aren’t sure you understand how “fantasy baseball” works. But alas! Sometimes you manage to match your wits in a transaction and come out exactly Steven (a saying that no Steven has ever said, strangely enough). That was the Edward Cabrera for Owen Caissie trade. A patented even Steven trade (apologies to all Stevens). I don’t see a winner in the broad, big picture. Caissie could grow into something special, and EdCab’s arm is the tendon of a tempest in a teapot. For this year? Oh, I love Edward Cabrera! In fact (Gray has more!), I’ve already written a sleep post for him, which I’ll now present to you in its entirety. Anyway, here’s the Edward Cabrera sleeper and the synopsis:
Psyche! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to appear later this month. Anyway II, the Edward Cabrera sleeper, and then the offseason recap:
I still have a confession to make, I can’t say, “I have another confession to make,” and don’t start singing Best of You by Foo Fighters, but I also have a confession to make that I didn’t realize how excellent Edward Cabrera was last year. Maybe I knew at some point, but when I first opened his player page to dive in, I thought, “Oh, wow, maybe he’s a number two? Was that always the case? Did I remember that? Did I remember what ‘memory hole’ means and am I using it wrong?” EdCab fixed things, like the Marlins’ pitching coach was Latka Graves. In 2024, EdCab was broken: 10 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.95 ERA and it was 9.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.53 ERA. Yes, it’s mostly due to the increment command, but not entirely. Not immediately clear, but he had a bit of bad luck. Guy had a 3.53 ERA with excellent strikeouts and I just dropped him: “Did he get a little unlucky?” Hoo boy, my ears just perked up. I’m sitting here like an elf, sitting on the plank, about to jump off and do a little dance. By the way, what do Elf on the Shelf owners do with the Elf outside of Christmas time? Do they dress it up with other holiday gear? Does someone put a suit on him and call him his MLK on a plank? So, what can we expect from Edward Cabrera for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Edward Cabrera’s velocity was faster, his pitch mix was completely different and definitely worked for him. His curve, which he threw 23.6% of the time, had a .142 BAA. El oh el. Come on, man, I’m about to put EdCab on everything. That was the second-best curveball in the majors for starters, behind Framber Valdez for K%. Framber’s 44.6% versus EdCab’s 44.3%. You may remember that Framber had the best pitching, by K%, in all the major leagues. Do you think this means EdCab was second best? Pretty good guess! Some caveats are needed: To include EdCab in the best pitching K% in the majors, you would have to lower the plate count to 100 so that relievers would join the fray:
Edward Cabrera’s curveball is absurd. His slider isn’t too shabby. He threw it 17.3% of the time, and it had a .193 BAA and 43.7% Whiff%. It’s hard to remove the relievers from these charts because EdCab has thrown some of these pitches so few times as he has five pitches, but I think you’ll see something:
You will see Edward Cabrera! That’s what you’ll see! You’ll see relievers too, but they’re top relievers, and relievers can get by on one great pitch. Two if they are really elitist. First-time buyers aren’t so lucky. That’s okay, Edward Cabrera is also likely to throw 25.8% of the time, yielding a .203 BAA. Those are three pitches that are absolutely insane. He also has a 97 MPH four-seamer that he only throws 12.7% of the time as a setup pitch, and a sinker (20.6% of the time) that he doesn’t really know how to work. A stinker, if you will. He doesn’t need it anyway. He has three elite throws and five he can throw. When he discovers his sinker? Then he’ll essentially be a 2.50 ERA ace. I’m not exaggerating. He’s unlocked almost everything.
So the elephant in the cupboard (that’s the saying, right?) is that he hit the IL in September with a sprained elbow. Whoa, did I bury the red flag, the flashing sign that said “PROBLEMS?” Meh, he hit the IL on September 1, pitched again in mid-September and returned for two starts before the end of the season – one questionable game and then the final game, an outstanding performance by EdCab, striking out seven in five shutout innings to end the Mets season. Am I concerned that he suffered a sprained elbow in September and has never thrown more than 137 2/3 IP? Sure, but give me 130 of the number two numbers and let me dodge. For 2026, I give Edward Cabrera projections of 9-10/3.41/1.20/139 in 132 IP with a chance for much more, especially if he can stay on the field for 160+ IP.
Owen Caission – Traded to the Marlins. So I’m a lot less interested in Caissie this year. Don’t get twisted, as they say at the worst Wetzels stores, this trade wasn’t even Steven for the year. Caissie is a work in progress. As far as I know, he can’t connect with things that really matter. He might be a 33+% K%. Dear Cheeky Molasses, Caissie! That’s not great. But that could get better and why I like this trade for the Marlins. EdCab is a hottie, but pray his arm stays together; Caissie could become excellent next year. He definitely has some holes, but big power, 40-homer type power, but could hit .210. He reminds me a bit of another Marlins prospect, Deyvison De Los Santos, who hasn’t delivered so far. Projections for 2026: 43/19/54/.212/6 in 390 ABs
Michael Lorenzen – Signed with the Rockies. The two-way player is headed to where he will be the Rockies’ number one starter and three-hole hitter. A poor man’s Shohei Ohtani. Call him Po’hei Poh’tani, which sounds like the worst Hawaiian stripper name.
Kazuma Okamoto – Signed with the Jays. You know, I’m not sure if this hurts my Addison Barger sleeper, but I think it does. I also liked Nathan Lukes — Nathan Likes? – and that can hurt too. Oh man, Kazuma Okamoto, you ess-oh-bee, you’re a prospblock! Was soon-to-be 32-year-old Nathan Lukes a potential candidate? Um, well, interjection. Reasonable! Barger might have been. Rather. The truth of the matter (Gray has truths!), guys you think will be healthy (Santander) won’t stay healthy and there will be at-bats to go around. Am I just as happy for Barger now? A little less, if I’m honest. It feels like Barger was a lefty platoon guy who didn’t have a platoon partner but now has Lukes. So as for Kazuma Okamoto, he’s basically Murakami, but with better contact. Murakami is younger, though, so there’s hope he grows into something more, where Okamoto is what you paid for, which feels like a Japanese Ryan O’Hearn. Call him Ryan O’Saka. Actually, that might sell Okamoto’s power a bit short. Projections for 2026: 67/24/73/.256 in 489 ABs
#EdCab #Cubbie