The Joshua-Fury saga continues to define a special chapter in heavyweight boxing. Following Anthony Joshua’s dominant sixth-round knockout of Jake Paul on December 19, 2025 at the Kaseya Center in Miami, speculation surrounding the long-delayed British showdown has increased significantly. Saudi Arabia’s de facto boxing queen Turki Alalshikh has reportedly confirmed plans for the two former heavyweight champions to headline a seasonal event in Riyadh in 2026, with negotiations pointing to a September clash.
Anthony Joshua vs Tyson Fury early odds
The current gambling picture reflects skepticism mixed with genuine intrigue. According to some sportsbooks such as non-Gamstop gambling sites UKFury is a substantial favorite against Joshua at -420 (about 1/2 in fractional odds), while Joshua checks in as a +280 underdog. These odds suggest that oddsmakers are pegging a 77% probability of Fury winning versus a 23% chance for Joshua, taking into account Fury’s experience and Joshua’s recent ring rust following his September 2024 knockout loss to Daniel Dubois.
The real intrigue, however, lies in what these odds looked like historically during their two previous near misses. In 2021, with both camps supposedly agreeing to a two-fight deal, Fury opened at -190 with Joshua at +165, indicating a noticeably tighter matchup than today’s numbers suggest. A 2016 assessment found that Joshua favored Fury at even money on 8/11, showing how dramatically the perceived value of both men has shifted. In early 2024, after Joshua defeated Francis Ngannou, some media outlets called it a pick ’em fight, absolutely right.
The most important question is not the individual’s chances of fighting, but rather whether the fight takes place at all. Frank Warren, Fury’s promoter, expressed sincere confidence in December 2025 that negotiations were proceeding correctly, although he stressed that nothing had been signed.
Eddie Hearn, Joshua’s promoter, revealed that Alalshikh has personally committed to delivering the fight, but acknowledged that Hearn cannot guarantee Fury’s participation as those discussions between Alalshikh and Fury’s camp remain. Warren predicted a late summer 2026 bout, meaning both fighters would likely compete in separate tune-up fights between now and the main event.
The logistics have been somewhat crystallized. Joshua is expected to fight again in February 2026 before facing Furywhile Fury, who is currently officially retired, would also do a warm-up first. The money factor remains crucial. Fury has indicated he will only return if he gets the right financial package, and Alalshikh’s track record suggests he can produce figures substantial enough to tempt even a wealthy retired boxer.
From a pure boxing perspective, the odds are in Fury’s favor, but context is key. Fury is coming off back-to-back losses to Oleksandr Usyk in 2024, while Joshua has just dismantled an overmatched opponent after a fourteen-month absence. Fury has been without a win since his controversial win over Francis Ngannou in October 2023, and his recent ring performances against Usyk have revealed worrying sluggishness and reduced activity. Joshua’s knockout of Paul, while dominant throughout, showed that his fundamental power remains legitimate.
The bets remain theoretical until both fighters actually sign. What has become clear is that Alalshikh has the power and resources to make this happen, that Joshua has accepted the terms and that Fury is no longer refusing outright. That’s progress by Joshua-Fury standards, although skeptics note that a truly compelling heavyweight spectacle was supposed to happen about five years ago.​
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