The qualifying offer is one of the most important mechanics of the free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to extend the one-year contract (worth $22.025 million this winter) to eligible free agents. If a player has played with his team for the entire 2025 season and has not received a QO in the past, he is eligible for a qualifying offer. So the player can choose to accept the one-year pact and forgo free agency altogether to stay with his club.
If the player declines the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here is the (mostly recorded) breakdown of what each team will receive if one of their qualified free agents does indeed go to another club….
Revenue sharing recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
If any of these teams have a QO-rejecting free agent signing elsewhere for more than $50 million in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick will fall after the first round of next year’s draft. (For example, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes And Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50 million with their new teams.) If a team has a QO-rejected free agent signing elsewhere for less than $50 million guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere around the 70th-75th overall selection.
Looking at the members of these teams in the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks Zac Gallen and the brewers Brandon Woodruff are the only likely to reasonable candidates for a qualifying offer. You could also argue for releasing the Tigers Jack Flaherty a QO if he declines his $20 million player option for 2026. Notable free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor And Eugene Suarez are examples of players who are not eligible for the QO because they did not join the Mariners until mid-season.
Teams that do not receive revenue sharing funds and have not paid the competitive balance tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Rangers, Angels, White Sox
For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50 million). The Red Sox were members of this group in 2024 because they were not taxpayers, which is why Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.
The most important name to look at here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tuckerwho will likely get the biggest deal of any player in the 2025-2026 free agent class. Chicago could also issue a QO Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would require the Cubs to first decide on a series of club options and associated player options for Imanaga, so there are quite a few hoops to jump through before Imanaga actually hits the open market.
Teams in limbo: Astros
It’s usually pretty clear which teams are well above or well below the luxury tax threshold ($241 million in 2025), and sites like Grid source And Cot’s Baseball Contracts do an excellent job of estimating the ebb and flow of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The league’s accounting office obviously has the full payroll data for each team, so we won’t know the official status of each club until MLB releases their information in December.
For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear. Grid source has the Astros with an estimated tax number of $238.2 million, keeping them under the threshold Baby cot has swept Houston over the line with a $244 million tax bill. If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for the second year in a row, they will face an increased “second payer” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent above $241 million, which amounts to $900,000 if Cot’s projection of $244 million is correct.
While the actual $900,000 tax bill is negligible, the bigger impact for the Astros would relate to the impending free agent. Framber Valdez. The veteran southpaw will certainly receive a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out they fell below the tax threshold. If their tax number is indeed over $244 million, Houston joins the next group…
Competing balance taxpayers: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees
If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick will fall after the fourth round of the 2026 draft. For example, the Braves were taxpayers in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.
It turns out that many of the most obvious candidates for a qualifying offer from this winter’s free agent class come from taxpaying teams. The Phillies did that Kyle Schwarber And Ranger Suarezthe Padres have Dylan stops And Michael Kingthe Blue Jays have Bo Bichettethe Mets have Edwin Diaz (who will likely renege on his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham‘s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate. Bostons Luke Giolito is a borderline case for QO, and his late-season elbow issue could impact the decision the Red Sox make on qualifying offers.
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