FPPG is the key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider annual totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on overall output misses important information that such games may have missed due to injury, and can therefore skew the outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify the effectiveness of their fantasies.
The second article in the series focuses on running backs, comparing total production to 2025 weekly production (excluding Week 18). The previous article on quarterbacks can be found here.
Cam Skattebo, RB NYG
- RB35 Overall (125.7 fantasy points)
- RB9 in FPPG (15.7 fantasy points)
Injuries can often skew the discrepancy between overall fantasy output and FPPG, as is the case for Giants’ running back Cam Skattebo. In his rookie season, Skattebo made eight appearances before a dislocated ankle injury ended his season, including six games in a majority role – resulting in the weekly RB4 overall as his ceiling and RB22 as his floor. The six-game example also includes three games as RB1 and three games as RB2, with an average of 3.5 receptions per game and one total touchdown per game. Skattebo was an excellent RB9 in FPPG, but this includes the entire schedule, including the two games with less than 25% offensive snaps. Taking these outlier games (debut and late-season injury) out of the equation, Skattebo’s FPPG is even more impressive, jumping to 19.1 FPPG and ranking RB6 in this metric.
In Skattebo’s rookie season, the Giants had a troubled offense, with superstar wide receiver Malik Nabers playing just three full games and the switch at quarterback to fellow rookie Jaxson Dart in week four. We only got a small glimpse of Skattebo, in a tough situation, and he was excellent. The arrival of new head coach John Harbaugh is a minor concern given the previous day three’s draft capital and lack of ties, but Skattebo was productive and clearly the most talented running back on the Giants’ roster. He is entering the second year of his rookie deal and is ready to take charge in an improving situation heading into 2026.
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Overall, it was a small sample size for Skattebo, but he was great, especially considering the notoriously slow start to the season for rookie running backs. Skattebo was by far the best rookie in fantasy production – better than Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson, but well below these assets on the market, valued around RB15. It’s an improving environment for Skattebo in 2026. If he can avoid significant offseason competition, he will be significantly undervalued, as a low-end RB1 valuation would be more accurate given the situation and actual performance in 2025.
Cam Skattebo – DLF Player Game Log App.
Kenneth Walker, RB SEA
- RB23 Overall (173.6 fantasy points)
- RB29 in FPPG (10.8 fantasy points)
Newly crowned Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker deserves all the credit he’s getting for his playoff excellence, even if his 2025 regular-season fantasy performance has been extremely disappointing overall. Walker was an RB1 in four games, with a weekly high of just RB7. On the other hand, he delivered eleven games outside of RB2 numbers (at RB25 or worse) and including four games outside of RB3 numbers, Walker was difficult to trust, inconsistent and with a volatile low floor. Also, Walker saw a reduction to just five touchdowns, compared to the eight or nine he consistently scored each year of his career. Outside of touchdown numbers, both Walker and his backfield teammate Zach Charbonnet produced very similar fantasy numbers – with a limited ceiling and effectively cannibalizing each other in fantasy.
On the plus side, Walker showed strong upside as he was thrust into a majority role during the NFL playoffs after Charbonnet’s season-ending ACL injury opened up the Seahawks’ previous split backfield. The 2026 offseason will be interesting for Walker, who is scheduled to become a free agent, with the added uncertainty surrounding Charbonnet’s status in 2026. Whether Walker stays in Seattle or signs for a new franchise, he believes he will be given a leadership role in the backfield, which should give him a better finish than his RB29 in FPPG in 2025. Either way, Walker should return to the previous RB2 numbers he had before 2025 produced, although he never showed consistent durability to be a workhorse for any length of time.
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After its Super Bowl heroics, I expect the market value of Walker’s RB18 to inevitably rise. Given his age (25 years old) and strong short-term prospects in 2026, it’s easy to overlook a bad 2025 in which Walker was a poor option as your RB2. Walker is entering his prime and will have great name value in your dynasty leagues, but the bigger picture honestly calls into question his true ceiling for fantasy production. The near-term outlook is extremely positive, so I classify Walker as a hold, but I’m also very open to a pivot in early 2026 given my mid- to long-term concerns.
Kenneth Walker III | © Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
- RB13 Overall (232.3 fantasy points)
- RB17 in FPPG (14.5 fantasy points)
After a blistering 2024 season in which he finished as RB2 overall, Barkley was a huge disappointment in 2025, finishing as RB13 overall and an even more injured RB17 in FPPG. Barkley logged six games as an RB1, five games as an RB2 and five games as an RB3 or worse. Also, Barkley showed a lower ceiling than before, one game as the RB3 overall, but no other game in the top six – an underperformance of the RB1 in the average draft position (ADP) restatement. In 2024, Barkley was a four-time weekly RB1 and posted double-digit weekly RB1 finishes. Last year the receiving work was similar, but he produced 865 fewer rushing yards and six fewer rushing touchdowns.
The Eagles’ offense struggled in the transition from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to newly departed Kevin Patullo. Barkley will now get a chance to work with the Packers’ exciting Sean Mannion, but lost offensive line guru Jeff Stoutland in a remake of the Eagles’ offense. Another major concern for Barkley is the future of offensive linemen Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson, both of whom are considering retirement. Barkley is just one year removed from an elite fantasy season, but now finds himself at the lowest market value of his career (RB16), which coincides with his advancing years (29 years old).
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2025 was a huge disappointment for Barkley owners, both in terms of total production and FPPG. Despite his age, Barkley still has undeniable talent and the attacking scheme needs improvement from last season’s basic and ineffective performances. The biggest concerns concern the offensive line and the loss of a legendary position coach. Last year was an extremely poor result for Barkley, with the market reacting taking age and uncertainty into account. I think there’s a good chance Barkley lands near RB20 after rookie drafts, making him an attractive target if he can avoid potential losses in the Eagles’ offensive trenches.
Saquon Barkley – DLF ADP Over Time App.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB WAS
- RB32 Overall (136.4 fantasy points)
- RB44 in FPPG (8.5 fantasy points)
One of the most hyped players during the summer of 2025, Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt was a great real-life story, surpassing his draft capital in the seventh round en route to an overall RB32 season. Last season, Croskey-Merritt produced two RB1, RB2 and RB3 performances, in addition to a whopping 10 games at RB4 and beyond. At first glance, the RB32 finish looks solid for a starting running back, but when taking FPPG’s key perspective into account, it’s a lot less impressive at RB44. Croskey-Merritt was productive on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns, but was nearly zero in the passing game with just nine receptions on the year. On the plus side, Croskey-Merritt finished the season strong, averaging RB1 numbers during the fantasy playoffs.
Rookie running backs can take some time to develop and for context, Croskey-Merritt produced similar overall fantasy numbers to fellow rookies Woody Marks and Kyle Monangai, albeit in slightly different situations. With Austin Ekeler’s injury early in the season, it became a wide open backfield for Croskey-Merritt to take advantage, battling the likes of Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols for touches. As a day three draft selection, Croskey-Merritt will always be looking over his shoulder for his next challenger and will certainly face tougher competition this season than the talent-less backfield of 2025.
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To be honest, I’ve always had a hard time getting into Croskey-Merritt in general. I rated him as a trade candidate early in his rookie season when he was rated as an RB2, but the market has adjusted and he is now near the RB3/RB4 top at RB34. In real life, I see the up-and-coming talent to survive in this league, but I am still not convinced of his game-changing ability to contribute effectively to the dynasty. It looks like the Commanders will definitely upgrade the backfield, even Brian Robinson was an RB2 in this team’s dynasty before moving on to the 49ers. Croskey-Merritt has been a consistent sell for me, with a dangerously low FPPG not in line with its market value, so act quickly and make the pivot before the landmine events of free-agency and the draft.
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